37311 47Th St #183 · Palmdale, CA 93553

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 710 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 1961 Good condition Est $77k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rehabbed and move-in ready! This home has been upgraded with new plumbing and all-new electrical throughout, including new outlets. Enjoy a brand-new mini split system for efficient heating and cooling, along with a new sink, New bathroom vanity, and modern light fixtures throughout. The home also features brand-new flooring, updated drywall walls, and fresh interior paint, giving it a clean and contemporary feel. Located in Thousand Elms Mobile Lodge, a 55+ senior community, this cozy home offers a spacious bedroom, with a bonus room that can be used as a second bedroom The kitchen provides plenty of cabinet space, and the open living area is filled with natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The property is features large lot with a shed offering added privacy. Park approval is required; application must be submitted.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New bathroom vanity
• New electrical

Tags

• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• NEW SINK
• NEW BATHROOM VANITY
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home remains on parcel; Mobile dimensions approximately 10 ft x 50 ft; Park directions: near 47th Street and Avenue S
• Financial info: Monthly land lease
• HOA & community: Land-lease community (Thousand Elms Mobile Home Lodge); Senior community; Community features: biking, sidewalks; Manager approval required for residency; Pets: contact manager

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 parking space, 1 garage space total)
• Utilities: Public/District water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected/available; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (expando model 'crusader'); Entry located on side; Turnkey condition; updated/remodeled
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Drywall interior walls; Metal roof; No foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Awning; Exterior lighting; Community pool; Vinyl skirt; Shed; Wire fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas range; Formica counters; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Bonus room
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upgraded and remodeled)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Baseboard heating; Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Palmdale Learning Plaza (783 students, 80% FRL); Cactus Medical Health And Technology Magnet Academy (865 students, 92% FRL); William J. (Pete) Knight High (2,793 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.15%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,390
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37311 47th St E #114	0.11mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (-5%)	8mo	$38,500	$57	75
37311 E 47th St #104	0.11mi	1/1.0	780 (+10%)	9mo	$85,000	$109	71
37311 N 47th St #204	0.08mi	2/1.0 (+1)	728 (+2%)	21mo	$60,000	$82	70
37311 E 47th St #191	0.11mi	2/1.5 (+1)	672 (-5%)	14mo	$89,000	$132	67
37311 47th St E #12	0.11mi	2/1.5 (+1)	728 (+2%)	23mo	$65,000	$89	64
37311 47th St #18	0.11mi	2/1.0 (+1)	624 (-12%)	19mo	$72,000	$115	54
4444 E Avenue R Space 123	0.68mi	2/2.0 (+1)	800 (+13%)	11mo	$155,000	$194	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $94,713
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.64×
• Total profit: $243,050
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93553

• Home prices YoY: 15.2%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $779	-5% $748	+0% $717	+5% $686	+10% $655
Rent	-10% $583	-5% $650	+0% $717	+5% $784	+10% $851
Rate	-1.0pp $762	-0.5pp $740	base $717	+0.5pp $694	+1.0pp $670

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4022 Karling Pl Unit B Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,695	$2.83	0d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $90,000 Active
17. 2026-04-15
    listed $90,000 Active 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Rehabbed and move-in ready! This home has been upgraded with new plumbing and all-new electrical throughout, including new outlets. Enjoy a brand-new mini split system for efficient heating and cooling, along with a new sink, New bathroom vanity, and modern light fixtures throughout. The home also features brand-new flooring, updated drywall walls, and fresh interior paint, giving it a clean and contemporary feel. Located in Thousand Elms Mobile Lodge, a 55+ senior community, this cozy home offers a spacious bedroom, with a bonus room that can be used as a second bedroom The kitchen provides plenty of cabinet space, and the open living area is filled with natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The property is features large lot with a shed offering added privacy. Park approval is required; application must be submitted.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 3 d/yr ≥99°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,626
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,830
• After-tax cash flow: $6,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This rehabbed and move-in ready manufactured home offers a spacious layout with updated kitchen and bathroom, new flooring, and fresh paint, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and add value.
• Both Upgrading window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve energy efficiency and add aesthetic appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and add value. ↑
• Both Upgrading window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve energy efficiency and add aesthetic appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmdale Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,652
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #12888
• State rank: #1147 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• City population: 177,644
• Population (ZIP): 1,349

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.60%
• Current HPI: 383.9938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $90,000 AVMLS