1907 Winecup Dr · Melissa, TX 75454

$314,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · Other public records · 224 Days on market

Built 2025 4,796 sqft lot $199/sqft · 11% below area Est $356k · 12% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21100670 - Built by Impression Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Hickory is a great one-story plan. This home is perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The open floorplan enhances the flow of the living and dining areas while showcasing a kitchen equipped with quartz counters, a large island, and a walk-in pantry. The open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The private owners suite has dual vanity sinks, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. You will have garage access through your mudroom!

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Private owners suite
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE OWNERS SUITE
• DUAL VANITY SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Melissa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Melissa ISD (suburban): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #24 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,867 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,069
• List price: $314,999
• Delta: -11.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-63,414
• Equity at exit: $46,967

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-89,129
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75454

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,143/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $300,017

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $4	+0% $-85	+5% $-174	+10% $-263
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-177	+0% $-85	+5% $8	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $-5	base $-85	+0.5pp $-166	+1.0pp $-249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2011 Winecup Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,095	$1.32	44d	1	0.06mi
3308 Dahlia Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$3,000	$2.04	44d	1	0.06mi
3315 Celestial Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,150	$1.20	13d	1	0.06mi
3315 Celestial Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,150	$1.20	44d	1	0.06mi
3324 Celestial Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.5	2055	$2,300	$1.12	44d	1	0.07mi
3305 Shortgrass Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,195	$1.19	13d	1	0.12mi
2030 Milrany Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	3.0	1939	$2,400	$1.24	44d	1	0.13mi
3227 Shortgrass Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,200	$1.23	18d	1	0.13mi
3215 Sedge Grass Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,995	$1.29	3d	1	0.13mi
3410 Taas DR Melissa, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1653	$2,758	$1.67	0d	17	0.19mi
3211 Bedstraw Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,099	$1.31	44d	1	0.23mi
3211 Bedstraw Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,100	$1.43	8d	1	0.23mi
3112 Yellow Pine Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,200	$1.23	44d	1	0.24mi
1616 Milrany Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,999	$1.46	44d	1	0.33mi
3434 Laguna Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,399	$1.13	44d	1	0.38mi
3513 Sunflower St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.5	2140	$2,400	$1.12	0d	1	0.40mi
2221 Grassland Ave Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,500	$1.21	44d	1	0.56mi
2510 Lovegrass Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1990	$2,450	$1.23	19d	1	0.64mi
2203 Poppy Valley Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1871	$2,395	$1.28	45d	1	0.66mi
2203 Poppy Valley Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1871	$2,395	$1.28	44d	1	0.66mi
3007 Hickory Rdg Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,150	$1.10	17d	1	0.67mi
3020 Whispering Pine Blvd Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1918	$2,290	$1.19	44d	1	0.75mi
2121 Meadowlark Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,500	$1.11	44d	1	0.95mi
3200 Sam Rayburn Hwy Melissa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$4,424	$4.72	0d	1	0.96mi
2011 Burnwood St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,895	$1.30	25d	1	1.05mi
2105 Burnwood St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,050	$1.46	23d	1	1.05mi
3509 Clara Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.5	2055	$2,700	$1.31	5d	1	1.08mi
4407 Silverweed Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,949	$1.31	19d	1	1.08mi
2008 Burnwood St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,850	$1.30	44d	1	1.09mi
2412 Yaupon Way Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1980	$2,447	$1.24	2d	1	1.12mi
4424 Marsh Hawk Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,500	$1.11	11d	1	1.15mi
3217 Willena Rd Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2213	$2,680	$1.21	6d	1	1.19mi
2614 Fritz St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,500	$1.19	13d	1	1.19mi
4405 Winecup Rd Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,099	$1.49	20d	1	1.19mi
4406 Winecup Rd Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,950	$1.39	3d	1	1.19mi
2105 Meadow Park Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,290	$1.08	13d	1	1.21mi
2128 Meadow Park Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,995	$1.42	44d	1	1.23mi
3320 Sam Rayburn Hwy Melissa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$2,080	$2.37	0d	48	1.24mi
2122 Meadow Park Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,350	$1.11	44d	1	1.24mi
3901 Kenworth Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	2059	$2,400	$1.17	44d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $314,999 Pending 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,999 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,999 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $314,999 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $324,999 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $324,999 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $324,999 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $324,999 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $324,999 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-05-07
    price $324,999 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

11. 2026-05-07
    price $324,999 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

12. 2026-03-06
    price $330,999 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

13. 2026-03-06
    price $330,999 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

14. 2026-01-29
    price $347,999 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

15. 2026-01-29
    price $347,999 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

16. 2025-10-30
    listed $367,999 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    MLS# 21100670 - Built by Impression Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Hickory is a great one-story plan. This home is perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The open floorplan enhances the flow of the living and dining areas while showcasing a kitchen equipped with quartz counters, a large island, and a walk-in pantry. The open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The private owners suite has dual vanity sinks, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. You will have garage access through your mudroom!

17. 2025-10-16
    price $367,999 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

18. 2025-10-16
    price $383,843 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

19. 2025-10-16
    price $367,999 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

20. 2025-08-01
    listed $383,843 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    The Hickory is a great one-story plan with a side entry and open-concept living area that is perfect for entertaining! The kitchen has an island and overlooks the large family room. The dining nook is spacious and walks out to your covered patio. The private owner's suite has a spacious bathroom with a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This plan has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom as well as a nice utility room. You will have garage access through your mudroom.

21. 2025-07-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,143 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,622/yr (+$385/mo · 404.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,143
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,245
• − Management: −$2,245
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,584
• After-tax cash flow: $566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Melissa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830120
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $82,500
• Composite: 58.34/100
• National rank: #1012
• State rank: #24 of 826 in TX

Livability — Melissa

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #9595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 22,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,990
• Household income: $138,827
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 246.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.66%
• Current HPI: 235.2508
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $324,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $324,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $330,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $330,999 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $347,999 NTREIS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $347,999 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Listed $367,999 NTREIS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $367,999 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $383,843 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $367,999 Zillow
• 2025-08-01 Listed $383,843 Zillow
• 2025-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,143 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.