6830 Fm 2114 · Hubbard, TX 76648

$65,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 2016 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this tiny home in the making sitting on 1 ace of land, ready for someone to finish out or make their own. The structure has already been started, offering a great head start. Utilities are already in place with meters set and septic installed, saving time and expense. The property offers flexibility for a variety of uses, finish out the tiny home, build a new home or bring in a mobile home and use existing structure as a guest space, storage building, work shop or man cave. Located just outside the small town charm of Hubbard, you will enjoy the quiet country living with room to make this property your own. Bring your ideas and turn this tiny home project into something specail.

Key facts

• Septic installed
• Quiet country living
• Utilities in place

Tags

• 1 ACRE OF LAND
• UTILITIES IN PLACE
• SEPTIC INSTALLED
• QUIET COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#839 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Penelope ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #620 of 1,141 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.29%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $69,717
• Equity at exit: $53,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.55×
• Total profit: $173,803
• Equity at exit: $110,807

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76648

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $916/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $562

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $648	-5% $630	+0% $611	+5% $593	+10% $574
Rent	-10% $506	-5% $558	+0% $611	+5% $664	+10% $717
Rate	-1.0pp $644	-0.5pp $628	base $611	+0.5pp $594	+1.0pp $577

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-03-09
    listed $65,000 Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this tiny home in the making sitting on 1 ace of land, ready for someone to finish out or make their own. The structure has already been started, offering a great head start. Utilities are already in place with meters set and septic installed, saving time and expense. The property offers flexibility for a variety of uses, finish out the tiny home, build a new home or bring in a mobile home and use existing structure as a guest space, storage building, work shop or man cave. Located just outside the small town charm of Hubbard, you will enjoy the quiet country living with room to make this property your own. Bring your ideas and turn this tiny home project into something specail.

18. 2013-06-10
    soldstatus
19. 2011-12-14
    soldstatus
20. 2005-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 29.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$916
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,694
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,606
• After-tax cash flow: $5,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penelope ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834560
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,811
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #8352
• State rank: #620 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Hubbard

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #839
• US rank: #15119

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,922
• Population (ZIP): 2,922

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.95%
• Current HPI: 223.2919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2013-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $916 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.