701 Oak Ln · Cottonwood Shores, TX 78657

$184,299

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 416 Days on market

Built 1960 10,001 sqft lot $118/sqft · 43% below area Est $324k · 43% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER! This very UNIQUE 3 bed 2 bath single-family home is available in Cottonwood Shores, TX. This two-story property sits on a huge 10,000 Sq. Ft. corner lot. This property has been condemned by the City and needs extensive repairs. It is being sold AS IS. There is plenty of yard space and an added back storage area that can also be utilized as a one-car garage. The property will have a brand-new roof and other small cosmetic repairs. It is in a great location just minutes away from the Colorado River and with easy quick access to Hwy 71 and be near a number of local parks, markets, and restaurants. This home is being sold AS IS but has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Brand-new roof
• Ceramic tile floors
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORS
• EXPOSED STONE ACCENT WALL
• EXTENDED COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BRAND-NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.2% in Cottonwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#385 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 416 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,183 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 416 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.62%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,780
• List price: $184,299
• Delta: -43.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
651 Birch Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+5%)	16mo	$334,000	$204	75
650 Birch Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,699 (+9%)	8mo	$309,000	$182	74
614 Maple Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-4%)	10mo	$344,900	$231	73
802 Magnolia Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-8%)	2mo	$189,000	$131	72
724 Cypress Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-13%)	3mo	$245,000	$181	65
600 Fir Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-11%)	2mo	$299,999	$216	61
757 Cypress Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+14%)	1mo	$220,000	$123	59
641 Magnolia Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	15mo	$314,900	$233	57
848 Driftwood Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	2mo	$289,900	$215	47
833 Magnolia Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-14%)	13mo	$309,900	$232	44
850 Fir Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,786 (+14%)	7mo	$265,000	$148	37
846 Driftwood Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	17mo	$314,900	$233	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $32,017
• Equity at exit: $62,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $99,207
• Equity at exit: $82,511

Cash invested: $51,604 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$966
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,449/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,473

Max offer price $184,299

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $509	+0% $457	+5% $405	+10% $353
Rent	-10% $295	-5% $376	+0% $457	+5% $538	+10% $619
Rate	-1.0pp $550	-0.5pp $504	base $457	+0.5pp $409	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,075
• Closing costs: $5,529
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
851 Aspen Ln Cottonwood Shores, TX	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,692	$1.18	44d	1	0.55mi
851 Aspen Ln Cottonwood Shores, TX	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,566	$1.09	24d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,299 Active 416 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,299 Active 415 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,299 Active 414 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,299 Active 413 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,299 Active 411 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,299 Active 410 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,299 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,299 Active 406 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,299 Active 405 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,299 Active 402 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,299 Active 401 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,299 Active 399 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,299 Active 398 DOM
14. 2025-04-28
    listed $184,299 Active 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER! This very UNIQUE 3 bed 2 bath single-family home is available in Cottonwood Shores, TX. This two-story property sits on a huge 10,000 Sq. Ft. corner lot. This property has been condemned by the City and needs extensive repairs. It is being sold AS IS. There is plenty of yard space and an added back storage area that can also be utilized as a one-car garage. The property will have a brand-new roof and other small cosmetic repairs. It is in a great location just minutes away from the Colorado River and with easy quick access to Hwy 71 and be near a number of local parks, markets, and restaurants. This home is being sold AS IS but has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,449 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,373 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,923/yr (+$160/mo · 132.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,324
• − Property taxes: −$1,449
• − Insurance: −$921
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,970
• − Management: −$1,970
• − Depreciation: −$5,361
• Taxable income: $2,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$630
• After-tax cash flow: $4,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cottonwood Shores

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #8036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood Shores, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-28 Listed $184,299 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,449 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.