2650 Shirley Dr · Indianapolis city (balance), IN 46222

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1956 6,011 sqft lot Est $135k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home has over 800 square feet. Close to shopping, downtown, schools, parks, golf, and the interstates.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Black appliances
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETRY
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• LARGE LIVING ROOM WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($551/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (2.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in Indianapolis city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indianapolis Public Schools (urban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #286 of 301 in IN (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clarence Farrington School 61 (math 6% / reading 9%, grade F, #949 of 994 statewide, top 97%, 467 students, 81% FRL); George Washington High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #366 of 369 statewide, top 99%, 753 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,906 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $135k implies a 462% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $131,754 (2.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,976
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 Shirley Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	888 (0%)	0mo	$134,900	$152	100
11 Digby Ct	0.14mi	3/1.0	888 (0%)	1mo	$178,000	$200	93
4131 Breton St	0.49mi	3/1.0	888 (0%)	2mo	$132,000	$149	76
2825 Mussman Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5	936 (+5%)	2mo	$202,000	$216	75
4008 Patricia St	0.44mi	3/1.0	840 (-5%)	3mo	$140,000	$167	68
3148 Keswick Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	900 (+1%)	3mo	$132,500	$147	65
3116 Georgetown Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	925 (+4%)	1mo	$205,000	$222	60
4338 Thrush Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	900 (+1%)	4mo	$114,000	$127	60
4317 Patricia St	0.41mi	3/1.0	980 (+10%)	6mo	$125,000	$128	59
4047 Arcadia St	0.59mi	3/1.0	972 (+10%)	2mo	$178,900	$184	56
4821 Patricia St	0.67mi	3/1.0	975 (+10%)	5mo	$145,000	$149	48
3914 Thrush Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	984 (+11%)	1mo	$121,500	$123	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-19,590
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-15,947
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46222

• Home prices YoY: -16.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,776/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $84	+0% $46	+5% $8	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $-6	+0% $46	+5% $98	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $80	base $46	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Philip Ct Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	24d	1	0.19mi
2907 Corvallis Cres Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,200	$1.09	24d	1	0.35mi
2907 Corvallis Cres Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.35mi
4014 Alberta St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	988	$1,195	$1.21	21d	1	0.59mi
3060 Midvale Dr Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	0.60mi
3138 Midvale Dr Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	45d	1	0.69mi
3232 Normandy Rd Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	21d	1	0.69mi
2930 Lafayette Rd Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	642	$1,108	$1.72	3d	5	0.70mi
3621 Lawnview Ln Indianapolis, IN	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	1012	$1,162	$1.15	3d	13	0.74mi
2014 N Exeter Ave Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	660	$1,295	$1.96	8d	1	0.93mi
3245 Chrysler St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	945	$1,345	$1.42	5d	1	0.93mi
2418 N Centennial St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	725	$1,099	$1.52	45d	1	0.97mi
3215 N Alton Ave Indianapolis, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,579	$1.63	3d	16	1.02mi
3215 N Alton Ave Unit 3326C Indianapolis, IN	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,109	$1.04	21d	1	1.04mi
3215 N Alton Ave Unit 33S3323B Indianapolis, IN	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,109	$1.04	45d	1	1.04mi
2365 N Goodlet Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.5	900	$1,099	$1.22	24d	1	1.07mi
1621 N Livingston Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	952	$1,300	$1.37	24d	1	1.16mi
3201 Watergate Rd Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	826	$1,269	$1.54	4d	20	1.22mi
1545 N Main St Speedway, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	891	$1,972	$2.21	8d	9	1.25mi
2011 N Kessler Boulevard Dr Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0	888	$1,375	$1.55	24d	1	1.33mi
3451 Sherburne Ln Indianapolis, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,386	$1.63	4d	38	1.45mi
2602 Mansion Dr Indianapolis, IN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1850	$1,675	$0.91	8d	6	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $134,900 Active
3. 2012-03-07
   historical 165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home has over 800 square feet. Close to shopping, downtown, schools, parks, golf, and the interstates.

4. 2012-03-05
   soldstatus $23,994 165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home has over 800 square feet. Close to shopping, downtown, schools, parks, golf, and the interstates.

5. 2012-01-24
   listed $25,800 165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home has over 800 square feet. Close to shopping, downtown, schools, parks, golf, and the interstates.

6. 2003-01-08
   soldstatus $44,000 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   BANK-OWNED HOME. ALL OFFERS MUST BE PRESENTED WITH PROOF OF FUNDS OR PRE-APPROVAL LETTER. NO FHA/VA OFFERS PLEASE. ROOM SIZES ARE APPROXIMATE. 3 BEDROOM IN EAGLEDALE, GREAT FOR FIRST TIME BUYER, NEEDS COSMETICS, COME AN D SEE THIS ONE!

7. 2002-08-28
   listed $46,900 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   BANK-OWNED HOME. ALL OFFERS MUST BE PRESENTED WITH PROOF OF FUNDS OR PRE-APPROVAL LETTER. NO FHA/VA OFFERS PLEASE. ROOM SIZES ARE APPROXIMATE. 3 BEDROOM IN EAGLEDALE, GREAT FOR FIRST TIME BUYER, NEEDS COSMETICS, COME AN D SEE THIS ONE!

8. 2002-02-28
   historical
9. 2001-08-27
   listed $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,776 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,776 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,776
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$1,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$396
• After-tax cash flow: $947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indianapolis Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1804770
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,034
• Composite: 13.69/100
• National rank: #9499
• State rank: #286 of 301 in IN

Livability — Indianapolis city (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indianapolis city (balance), IN
• County: Marion County · 998,460 people
• City population: 881,119
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,887
• Household income: $50,783
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1750.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,572 people
• By 2030: 1,065,727 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 1,141,577 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 1,208,920 · +17.9%
• By 2075: 1,367,288 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 1,438,201 · +40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.7) · D 63.0% · R 35.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 27.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.7 2020: D+29.1 2016: D+22.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.47%
• Current HPI: 375.8479
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.46%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+140.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $134,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-07 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-05 Sold (MLS) $23,994 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-24 Listed $25,800 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-08 Sold (MLS) $44,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-28 Listed $46,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-02-28 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-27 Listed $56,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,776 · +26.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.