18619 Serapis St · Fresno, TX 77545

$353,145

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Land · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 $223/sqft · 11% above area Est $318k · 11% over $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18619 Serapis Street located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional plan.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $353k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-561 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,340 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.81%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,890
• List price: $353,145
• Delta: 11.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-84,760
• Equity at exit: $68,901

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-133,497
• Equity at exit: $59,183

Cash invested: $98,881 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,433 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,852
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$441 /mo · $5,297/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,144

Max offer price $271,950

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-317	-5% $-439	+0% $-561	+5% $-683	+10% $-805
Rent	-10% $-753	-5% $-657	+0% $-561	+5% $-465	+10% $-369
Rate	-1.0pp $-383	-0.5pp $-471	base $-561	+0.5pp $-653	+1.0pp $-746

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,286
• Closing costs: $10,594
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	6d	1	1.26mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	2d	1	1.45mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	21d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $353,145 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $353,145 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $353,145 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $353,145 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $353,145 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $353,145 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,145 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $349,145 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,145 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,145 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,145 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,145 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-04-16
    listed $349,145 Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18619 Serapis Street located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,782
• − Property taxes: −$5,297
• − Insurance: −$1,766
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,336
• − Management: −$2,336
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$10,273
• Taxable loss: −$13,105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,145
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $349,145 HARMLS