555 W Warner Rd #45 · Chandler, AZ 85225

$49,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 64 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $69/sqft · 24% above area Est $40k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TURNKEY! Discover cozy comfort in this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home located in the ALL-AGE community of Kon Tiki Mobile Home Village. Spanning 720 sq. ft., this home features central AC, a newer water heater, a new deck, and a convenient storage shed, making it perfect for relaxed living and easy everyday convenience. Enjoy a vibrant community atmosphere with fantastic amenities including a swimming pool, playground, basketball court, laundry facilities, and boat/RV storage. These features provide plenty of opportunities for fun, relaxation, and convenience right outside your door.

Key facts

• Central ac
• Swimming pool
• Storage shed

Tags

• CENTRAL AC
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• NEW DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $983 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.08%
• DSCR: 4.79
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,955
• List price: $49,500
• Delta: 23.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
848 W Calle Del Norte --	0.40mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	13mo	$250,000	$347	70
200 E Knox Rd #67	0.73mi	2/1.0	714 (-1%)	3mo	$37,500	$53	62
200 E Knox Rd #124	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-3%)	7mo	$43,000	$61	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $49,675
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $104,955
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85225

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 E Warner Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$1,606	$1.56	2d	28	0.81mi
123 E Corporate Pl Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$2,642	$2.06	5d	91	0.83mi
625 N Alma School Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,185	$1.98	5d	2	1.32mi
771 N Delaware St Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	645	$1,400	$2.17	22d	1	1.32mi
625 N Alma School Rd Apt 38 Chandler, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$1,099	$1.69	43d	1	1.33mi
1320 N McQueen Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0	1.0	604	$1,112	$1.84	20d	1	1.41mi
3033 N Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0–3.0	944	$2,590	$2.74	2d	230	1.42mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,500 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,500 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,500 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,500 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,500 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,500 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,500 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,500 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-04-06
   listed $49,500 Active 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   TURNKEY! Discover cozy comfort in this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home located in the ALL-AGE community of Kon Tiki Mobile Home Village. Spanning 720 sq. ft., this home features central AC, a newer water heater, a new deck, and a convenient storage shed, making it perfect for relaxed living and easy everyday convenience. Enjoy a vibrant community atmosphere with fantastic amenities including a swimming pool, playground, basketball court, laundry facilities, and boat/RV storage. These features provide plenty of opportunities for fun, relaxation, and convenience right outside your door.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $11,700
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,808
• After-tax cash flow: $8,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This turnkey manufactured home in Kon Tiki Mobile Home Village is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and attract potential buyers/renters.
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — An outdoor seating area enhances the living space and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgraded flooring in bathrooms improves aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and attract potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — An outdoor seating area enhances the living space and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgraded flooring in bathrooms improves aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 72,297
• Household income: $88,676
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2327.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.25%
• Current HPI: 328.8354
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $49,500 ARMLS