896 Route 9 · Tuckerton, NJ 08087

$174,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1926 6,969 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in this quaint rural area of the Jersey Shore, this home has so much potential to create a charming cottage. Offering a spacious kitchen area and third bedroom on the second floor, there is room to grow. The property is priced to sell, come see how you can renovate to the perfect home!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1926
• Listed 133 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.4% in Tuckerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#476 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinelands Regional School District (rural): math 14% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #344 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $175k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.95%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,099
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Walnut St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,590 (-0%)	13mo	$387,000	$243	74
19 Cherry St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,594 (+0%)	1mo	$356,000	$223	67
122 Division St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,528 (-4%)	9mo	$325,000	$213	66
198 Mill St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,556 (-2%)	2mo	$140,000	$90	61
183 Willets Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-10%)	17mo	$425,000	$298	54
116 Parkertown Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-12%)	17mo	$350,000	$249	46
106 Quail Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,668 (+5%)	14mo	$490,000	$294	46
104 Quail Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-5%)	22mo	$475,550	$315	42
185 Mill St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,622 (+2%)	23mo	$375,000	$231	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $18,426
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $76,556
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08087

• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,896/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
709 Lady Slipper Ct Unit 709 Tuckerton, NJ	2.0	1.5	1410	$2,750	$1.95	1d	1	1.25mi
111 Teaberry Ct Tuckerton, NJ	2.0	1.5	1613	$2,350	$1.46	1d	1	1.27mi
421 Ibis Ct Tuckerton, NJ	2.0	1.5	1410	$2,300	$1.63	1d	1	1.30mi
421 Ibis Ct Tuckerton, NJ	2.0	1.5	1410	$2,500	$1.77	7d	1	1.30mi
500 E Main St Tuckerton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	846	$2,374	$2.80	1d	6	1.33mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $174,900 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-17
    status Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Located in this quaint rural area of the Jersey Shore, this home has so much potential to create a charming cottage. Offering a spacious kitchen area and third bedroom on the second floor, there is room to grow. The property is priced to sell, come see how you can renovate to the perfect home!

15. 2026-05-14
    status Pending 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Located in this quaint rural area of the Jersey Shore, this home has so much potential to create a charming cottage. Offering a spacious kitchen area and third bedroom on the second floor, there is room to grow. The property is priced to sell, come see how you can renovate to the perfect home!

16. 2026-04-09
    price $179,900 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Located in this quaint rural area of the Jersey Shore, this home has so much potential to create a charming cottage. Offering a spacious kitchen area and third bedroom on the second floor, there is room to grow. The property is priced to sell, come see how you can renovate to the perfect home!

17. 2026-02-04
    price $189,900 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Located in this quaint rural area of the Jersey Shore, this home has so much potential to create a charming cottage. Offering a spacious kitchen area and third bedroom on the second floor, there is room to grow. The property is priced to sell, come see how you can renovate to the perfect home!

18. 2026-02-01
    listed $199,900 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Located in this quaint rural area of the Jersey Shore, this home has so much potential to create a charming cottage. Offering a spacious kitchen area and third bedroom on the second floor, there is room to grow. The property is priced to sell, come see how you can renovate to the perfect home!

19. 2026-01-01
    price $199,900
20. 2025-12-02
    price $209,900
21. 2025-11-06
    price $219,900
22. 2025-10-03
    price $229,900
23. 2025-09-06
    price $244,900
24. 2025-07-25
    listed $254,900 Active
25. 1996-07-11
    soldstatus $70,000
26. 1996-06-28
    soldstatus $70,000
27. 1996-04-08
    historical
28. 1996-01-28
    listed $74,900
29. 1994-05-02
    soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,896 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,126 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: +$229/yr (+$19/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$3,896
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $6,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $7,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinelands Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3413000
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,396
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7075
• State rank: #344 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Tuckerton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #18492

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 25,342
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,342
• Household income: $91,677
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 519.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.86%
• Current HPI: 340.4378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+230.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $179,900 MOMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $189,900 MOMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $199,900 MOMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $199,900 MOMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $209,900 MOMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $219,900 MOMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $229,900 MOMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $244,900 MOMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $254,900 MOMLS
• 1996-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1996-06-28 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MOMLS
• 1996-04-08 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1996-01-28 Listed $74,900 MOMLS
• 1994-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,896 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.