852 Franconville Ct · Poinciana, FL 34759

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,227 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1996 8,233 sqft lot Est $258k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is not a Short Sale. This is a bank owned 3 BR 2 Bath home with a spacious layout, split bedroom plan, large open living room and a breakfast nook. Inside laundry and large fenced in backyard. Seller offering a BONUS to the SELLING AGENT andCLOSING COST CREDIT. BACK ON MARKET!

Key facts

• Replaced roof
• Fenced backyard
• 8,233 sq ft lot

Tags

• DECORATIVE ACCENT WALL
• FENCED BACKYARD
• REPLACED ROOF
• NEAR POINCIANA PARKWAY
• NEAR VANCE HARMON PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; No lease restrictions; Zoning: OPUD
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Association of Poinciana Villages) with a required monthly fee of $100; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,806 square feet (living area reported separately)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road frontage; Lot approximately 0.19 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chestnut Elementary School For Science And Engineering (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 736 students, 62% FRL); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $250k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,273 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,670
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
814 Cabaret Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+5%)	20mo	$316,350	$247	67
849 Jarnac Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+9%)	12mo	$260,000	$195	65
918 Cannes Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+5%)	23mo	$270,000	$210	61
702 Pasteur Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+13%)	6mo	$240,000	$174	55
405 Martigues Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-0%)	21mo	$295,000	$241	54
847 Massy Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+9%)	20mo	$260,000	$195	54
306 Clermont Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,153 (-6%)	11mo	$255,000	$221	46
859 Ognon Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	17mo	$275,000	$196	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,543
• Equity at exit: $54,634

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,909
• Equity at exit: $52,651

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $972/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $227,978

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
870 Jarnac Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,710	$1.26	8d	1	0.20mi
657 Koala Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$2,020	$1.62	3d	1	0.24mi
657 Koala Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,870	$1.50	3d	1	0.24mi
827 Massy Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,639	$1.11	22d	1	0.25mi
653 Koala Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$2,000	$1.61	14d	1	0.25mi
853 Blanc Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	8d	1	0.31mi
659 Gazelle Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,875	$1.25	23d	1	0.44mi
601 Fisher Ct Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,525	$1.22	23d	1	0.46mi
319 Baccarat Ct Unit A Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,375	$1.26	24d	1	0.54mi
658 Caribou Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	3d	1	0.56mi
609 Tamarin Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,725	$1.38	14d	1	0.58mi
721 Bittern Ln Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	23d	1	0.59mi
736 Bittern Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,775	$1.48	23d	1	0.67mi
641 Yak Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,650	$1.42	23d	1	0.71mi
774 Squirrel Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	23d	1	0.71mi
783 Squirrel Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	23d	1	0.72mi
702 Bluebill Pl Unit A Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,650	$1.33	23d	1	0.75mi
780 Platypus Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,695	$1.26	23d	1	0.78mi
309 Clermont Dr Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	24d	1	0.78mi
627 Bittern Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	3d	1	0.82mi
627B Bittern Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	12d	1	0.82mi
767 Platypus Ct Unit 767 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,650	$1.42	23d	1	0.83mi
603 Muskrat Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1496	$2,050	$1.37	3d	1	0.84mi
612 Bluebill Ct Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,650	$1.42	3d	1	0.86mi
627 Bluebill Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,760	$1.23	23d	1	0.90mi
754 Pelican Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,695	$1.30	3d	1	0.96mi
519 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	23d	1	0.98mi
517 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,530	$1.17	23d	1	0.99mi
539 Albatross Dr Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,500	$1.23	23d	1	1.01mi
514 Blackbird Ln Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,600	$1.15	21d	1	1.04mi
504 Albatross Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	3d	1	1.05mi
504 Albatross Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	23d	1	1.05mi
510 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,599	$1.32	23d	1	1.07mi
510 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,650	$1.37	10d	1	1.07mi
327 Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,500	$1.36	24d	1	1.09mi
401 Albatross Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	23d	1	1.09mi
504 Blackbird Ln Unit A Kissimmee, FL	2.0	1.5	908	$1,580	$1.74	19d	1	1.10mi
504 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	2.0	1.5	908	$1,550	$1.71	14d	1	1.10mi
439 Albatross Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,700	$1.26	23d	1	1.16mi
543 Cardinal Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1007	$1,860	$1.85	23d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $249,900 Active
16. 2008-10-22
    soldstatus $70,000 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    This is not a Short Sale. This is a bank owned 3 BR 2 Bath home with a spacious layout, split bedroom plan, large open living room and a breakfast nook. Inside laundry and large fenced in backyard. Seller offering a BONUS to the SELLING AGENT andCLOSING COST CREDIT. BACK ON MARKET!

17. 2008-07-02
    listed $68,000 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    This is not a Short Sale. This is a bank owned 3 BR 2 Bath home with a spacious layout, split bedroom plan, large open living room and a breakfast nook. Inside laundry and large fenced in backyard. Seller offering a BONUS to the SELLING AGENT andCLOSING COST CREDIT. BACK ON MARKET!

18. 2007-07-26
    historical
19. 2007-07-26
    listed $158,900
20. 2007-03-02
    listed $168,900
21. 2006-11-28
    listed $189,900
22. 2006-11-28
    historical
23. 2006-09-01
    listed $179,900
24. 2004-04-02
    soldstatus $112,000
25. 2000-11-08
    soldstatus $66,900
26. 1991-10-07
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,102/yr (+$92/mo · 113.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$972
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,419
• After-tax cash flow: $-70/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2676.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-22 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-02 Listed $68,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-26 Listed $158,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-02 Listed $168,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-28 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-01 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2000-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $66,900 Public Records
• 1991-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $972 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.