94 Sugar Bear Dr #55 · Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1980 4,069 sqft lot Est $160k · 7% under $235/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in one of Safety Harbor's most welcoming active adult communities, this charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and carefree living. With no rear neighbors, you'll enjoy a sense of privacy and openness that's hard to come by. Step inside to discover a generous living room that flows seamlessly into a spacious dining area, creating an inviting atmosphere for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen features a brand new stainless steel dishwasher and its own eat-in nook, ideal for casual morning coffee. The primary bedroom boasts an ensuite bathroom and an impressively large walk-in closet, while the second bedroom offers equally ge

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• Eat-in nook
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• GENEROUS LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• EAT-IN NOOK
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Buyer approval required for community
• Financial info: Monthly condo/HOA fee: $235; Total monthly fees shown as $235; Total annual fees shown as $2,820; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Ameritech/ Andrew George); Association approval required; Monthly association/conduct fee: $235; Association covers pool, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Community features: Clubhouse, Pool, Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits (max ~25 lb)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Home faces west; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal frame with metal siding; Membrane roof; Other roof materials; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 53 x 73; Lot acreage under 1/4 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Sliding doors; Lighting
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($202/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $149k implies a 282% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.75%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,160
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Willow Creek Ct #5	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	1mo	$142,500	$127	75
138 Thistle Briar Dr #52	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+2%)	9mo	$140,000	$133	73
70 Live Oak Ct #21	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+6%)	8mo	$115,000	$105	68
43 New Fawn Ct #28	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+6%)	17mo	$179,000	$162	68
84 Jacaranda Dr #15	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+14%)	1mo	$185,000	$157	64
130 Thistle Briar Dr #48	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	7mo	$160,000	$143	63
223 Dolphin Dr N	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+11%)	2mo	$235,000	$204	58
245 Pelican Dr N	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+6%)	10mo	$169,900	$154	55
131 Pinewood Ter #8	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	12mo	$190,000	$165	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,713
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $31,299
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34695

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $59	+0% $17	+5% $-25	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-61	+0% $17	+5% $95	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $55	base $17	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Magnolia Ct #4 Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	19d	1	0.37mi
2012 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,200	$1.92	25d	1	0.38mi
1924 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,315	$1.82	9d	1	0.46mi
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,550	$2.34	13d	1	0.48mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	5d	1	0.51mi
86 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	25d	1	0.61mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	12d	1	0.61mi
211 Countryside Key Blvd Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,899	$1.48	25d	1	0.69mi
1810 Driftwood Cir S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	5d	1	0.69mi
2955 Bay View Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,150	$2.05	25d	1	0.92mi
3640 Meriden Ave Unit 3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,575	$1.61	13d	1	0.95mi
2941 Shore Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,825	$1.73	5d	1	0.98mi
3664 Meriden Ave Unit A Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,795	$1.85	25d	1	1.00mi
3001 Landmark Blvd #101 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	25d	1	1.03mi
3149 Huron Ave Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	19d	1	1.05mi
3141 Huron Ave Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,875	$1.72	25d	1	1.06mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	5d	1	1.07mi
108 Nina Way #3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,695	$1.55	25d	1	1.12mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	19d	1	1.13mi
3460 Countryside Blvd #60 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.5	1349	$2,500	$1.85	9d	1	1.18mi
107 Windward Pl Unit 107 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$2,000	$2.28	19d	1	1.19mi
414 Meadow Ln Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	25d	1	1.23mi
46 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$2,000	$1.62	13d	1	1.23mi
47 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	25d	1	1.23mi
114 Meadow Ln #114 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	25d	1	1.26mi
100 Old Village Way Oldsmar, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,475	$1.38	3d	9	1.26mi
112 Woodlands Ct Unit 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	25d	1	1.28mi
122 Caryl Way Bldg 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,850	$1.69	25d	1	1.28mi
218 Caryl Way Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,740	$1.59	13d	1	1.29mi
3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit G Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	25d	1	1.30mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	4d	1	1.30mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	18d	1	1.30mi
3583 Whispering Oaks Ln Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1124	$1,800	$1.60	25d	1	1.34mi
2897 Thaxton Dr #65 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$2,280	$1.64	5d	1	1.44mi
133 Sabal Ct Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	16d	1	1.44mi
284 Woodlake Wynde Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$2,000	$2.16	25d	1	1.44mi
133 Sabal Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,495	$1.56	25d	2	1.44mi
336 Woodlake Wynde Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$2,000	$2.16	19d	1	1.44mi
2879 Thaxton Dr #55 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1396	$2,200	$1.58	5d	1	1.44mi
2843 Thaxton Dr #38 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,000	$1.42	5d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $149,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-04-18
    listed $159,000 Active
14. 1998-07-13
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$753/yr (+$63/mo · 155.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$5,864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$460
• After-tax cash flow: $662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Safety Harbor

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Safety Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 18,098
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,098
• Household income: $95,238
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 103.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.72%
• Current HPI: 335.0437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+307.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.