5136 Clusia Dr · Apopka, FL 32712

$389,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Land · 28 Days on market

Built 2025 4,799 sqft lot $7/mo HOA ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to the Baldwin, a stunning four-bedroom, two-bathroom home located in Crossroads at Kelly Park community. As you enter the foyer to this beautifully designed home, you are greeted by with an open concept living space featuring Revwood flooring throughout. The kitchen overlooks the dining and living room, while having a view to the oversized outdoor living space. The well-appointed kitchen features an island with bar seating, plentiful cabinet with beautiful quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, making entertaining a breeze. Bedroom one, located off the living space, has an en suite bathroom with double vanity and spacious walk-in closet providing amp

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Revwood flooring
• 4,799 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• REVWOOD FLOORING
• OVERSIZED OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• ISLAND WITH BAR SEATING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-382 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Apopka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#594 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 662 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $263,620 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-95,354
• Equity at exit: $58,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-144,634
• Equity at exit: $33,719

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32712

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 662
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,636 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,120

Max offer price $322,503

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4560 Dreamy Day St Apopka, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,400	$2.04	1d	55	0.18mi
4555 Sabastian Springs Ln Apopka, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	972	$2,388	$2.46	1d	61	0.20mi
4197 Jespersen St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.0	2130	$2,700	$1.27	22d	1	0.78mi
4132 Jespersen St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	2120	$2,550	$1.20	22d	1	0.84mi
4141 Conjunction Way Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1784	$2,480	$1.39	10d	1	0.91mi
4216 Sadler Rd Apopka, FL	4.0	2.5	1678	$2,450	$1.46	2d	1	0.98mi
4208 Sadler Rd Unit 1 Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,300	$1.56	8d	1	0.98mi
4208 Sadler Rd Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,395	$1.62	8d	1	0.98mi
3239 Gardenia Reserve St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,400	$1.63	2d	1	1.00mi
4124 Sadler Rd Apopka, FL	4.0	2.5	1678	$2,350	$1.40	22d	1	1.00mi
3276 Gardenia Reserve St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1679	$2,500	$1.49	22d	1	1.02mi
3107 Gardenia Reserve St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,350	$1.44	18d	1	1.03mi
3172 Gardenia Reserve St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,375	$1.46	24d	1	1.03mi
6114 Galloping Dr Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1816	$2,200	$1.21	22d	1	1.19mi
5414 Hayloft Dr Apopka, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,549	$1.38	18d	1	1.20mi
5485 Palomino Pl Apopka, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,500	$1.48	1d	1	1.32mi
3979 Capital Reef Way Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	2128	$2,545	$1.20	15d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $389,990
3. 2026-04-16
   price $394,990
4. 2026-03-31
   listed $397,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,000 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,237 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$237/yr (+$20/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,531
• − Management: −$2,531
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$11,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,796
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apopka

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #11020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apopka, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 109,852
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 50,583
• Household income: $108,734
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 19% Black 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.12%
• Current HPI: 283.4441
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $389,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $394,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $397,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid