4347 Bailey Ave · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1952 4,600 sqft lot $170/sqft · 15% below area Est $293k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! a 4 bedroom 2 bath affordable home in Amherst! 2 bedrooms and full bath downstairs and 2 bedrooms and a full bath up. Nice sized eat in kitchen, detached garage, AC and some new floors and dry basement. Perfect for growing households.

Key facts

• Newer vinyl windows
• Renovated bathrooms
• Large parking pad

Tags

• NEWER VINYL WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• LARGE PARKING PAD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Existing/resale property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 115

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($431/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Amherst Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #209 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $250k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $241,926 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,663
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -14.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Delta Rd	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,374 (-6%)	4mo	$260,000	$189	66
50 Fairchild Dr	0.47mi	4/1.5	1,398 (-5%)	3mo	$340,000	$243	65
1789 Eggert Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,368 (-7%)	4mo	$235,000	$172	64
4727 N Bailey Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-2%)	1mo	$280,000	$194	58
329 Springville Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,306 (-11%)	0mo	$322,040	$247	57
1436 Eggert Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (-6%)	2mo	$265,000	$192	52
511 Capen Blvd	0.41mi	4/1.0	1,260 (-14%)	1mo	$260,504	$207	52
145 Conant Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,507 (+2%)	4mo	$240,000	$159	52
21 Costin Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (+5%)	4mo	$190,000	$123	47
747 Sweet Home Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-8%)	1mo	$332,150	$245	46
142 Kelvin Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,559 (+6%)	4mo	$324,000	$208	45
124 Kelvin Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,568 (+7%)	4mo	$240,000	$153	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-25,296
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $39,626
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$461 /mo · $5,528/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,374

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
348 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,200	$1.54	1d	1	0.67mi
212 Dellwood Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	4.0	1209	$3,400	$2.81	1d	2	0.75mi
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	19d	1	0.88mi
91 Springville Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,350	$1.42	23d	1	0.88mi
524 University Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,600	$0.87	1d	1	0.89mi
151 Lamson Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1382	$2,350	$1.70	17d	1	1.30mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	16d	1	1.32mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	3d	1	1.32mi
33 Tillotson Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1143	$2,095	$1.83	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 794-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $249,900 Active 794-char remark
3. 2014-07-16
   soldstatus $81,212 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Wow! a 4 bedroom 2 bath affordable home in Amherst! 2 bedrooms and full bath downstairs and 2 bedrooms and a full bath up. Nice sized eat in kitchen, detached garage, AC and some new floors and dry basement. Perfect for growing households.

4. 2014-07-11
   soldstatus $81,212
5. 2014-05-23
   listed $100,000 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Wow! a 4 bedroom 2 bath affordable home in Amherst! 2 bedrooms and full bath downstairs and 2 bedrooms and a full bath up. Nice sized eat in kitchen, detached garage, AC and some new floors and dry basement. Perfect for growing households.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,528 · $461/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,528 · $461/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,528
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$878
• After-tax cash flow: $1,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amherst Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602920
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,551
• Composite: 53.21/100
• National rank: #1502
• State rank: #209 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eggertsville, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+149.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $249,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-07-16 Sold (MLS) $81,212 WNYREIS
• 2014-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $81,212 Public Records
• 2014-05-23 Listed $100,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,528 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.