203 Thrush Ct N · Manor, PA 17603

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1989 $850/mo HOA · 50% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1989 Skyline 28x40 DBLWDE with covered porch (needs painted again) in Pheasant Ridge. Within walking distance to shopping, bus route, pool. Upgrades: walk-in shower, bathtub surrounds, carpet/vinyl flooring, roof, stove, refrigerator, washer/dryer, ceiling fan, kitchen sink, storm door, furnace, thermostat. Has den/3rd bedroom! $574/mo lot rent includes Comcast Cable TV, pool, fitness room, etc. Fast park approval. Big dogs allowed. see 42 pics!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1989
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($802/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#888 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Penn Manor SD (suburban): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #80 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Penn Manor Hs (math 82% / reading 30%, grade C, #90 of 437 statewide, top 21%, 1,783 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 27% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 292 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $70k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 50% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-10,814
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-18,448
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17603

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $527/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,632

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $87	+0% $67	+5% $47	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-1	+0% $67	+5% $135	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $85	base $67	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1729 Manor Ridge Dr Unit 1731 Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,400	$1.41	14d	1	0.34mi
250 Stone Mill Rd Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0	1002	$1,462	$1.46	14d	1	0.45mi
700 Millersville Rd Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	710	$1,694	$2.39	14d	3	0.66mi
100 Country View Ln Millersville, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,838	$1.89	14d	6	0.76mi
1415 Spencer Ave Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1181	$2,610	$2.21	14d	1	1.02mi
101 Roselawn Ave Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,785	$1.53	14d	1	1.26mi
27 Roselle Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	1128	$1,575	$1.40	44d	1	1.30mi
135 Grandview Ave Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.0	1395	$3,295	$2.36	14d	1	1.36mi
1633A Judie Ln Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,698	$2.00	14d	13	1.43mi
1115 Marietta Ave Unit WH15037 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1298	$1,695	$1.31	44d	1	1.47mi
1116 Williamsburg Rd Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,950	$1.39	14d	1	1.49mi
1831 Hidden Ln Lancaster, PA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1182	$1,898	$1.61	14d	3	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr
• Likely covers: cablepool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $69,900 Active
3. 2026-02-07
   historical $69,900
4. 2017-02-03
   soldstatus $26,000 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   1989 Skyline 28x40 DBLWDE with covered porch (needs painted again) in Pheasant Ridge. Within walking distance to shopping, bus route, pool. Upgrades: walk-in shower, bathtub surrounds, carpet/vinyl flooring, roof, stove, refrigerator, washer/dryer, ceiling fan, kitchen sink, storm door, furnace, thermostat. Has den/3rd bedroom! $574/mo lot rent includes Comcast Cable TV, pool, fitness room, etc. Fast park approval. Big dogs allowed. see 42 pics!

5. 2017-01-25
   historical 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   1989 Skyline 28x40 DBLWDE with covered porch (needs painted again) in Pheasant Ridge. Within walking distance to shopping, bus route, pool. Upgrades: walk-in shower, bathtub surrounds, carpet/vinyl flooring, roof, stove, refrigerator, washer/dryer, ceiling fan, kitchen sink, storm door, furnace, thermostat. Has den/3rd bedroom! $574/mo lot rent includes Comcast Cable TV, pool, fitness room, etc. Fast park approval. Big dogs allowed. see 42 pics!

6. 2017-01-09
   listed $29,000 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   1989 Skyline 28x40 DBLWDE with covered porch (needs painted again) in Pheasant Ridge. Within walking distance to shopping, bus route, pool. Upgrades: walk-in shower, bathtub surrounds, carpet/vinyl flooring, roof, stove, refrigerator, washer/dryer, ceiling fan, kitchen sink, storm door, furnace, thermostat. Has den/3rd bedroom! $574/mo lot rent includes Comcast Cable TV, pool, fitness room, etc. Fast park approval. Big dogs allowed. see 42 pics!

7. 2015-05-19
   soldstatus $42,500 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   OPEN HOUSE APRIL 26th FROM 1-3PM. Well-maintained 1989 SKYLINE 28x40 DBLWDE within walking distance to shopping, bus route, park, pool. Upgrades: remodeled bathrooms including tub/shwr surrounds, carpet, vinyl flooring, roof, furnace, stove, refrigerator, washer/dryer, ceiling fan, kitchen sink, storm door, and more. Walk-in shower! Check out the DEN! Lot rent will increase to $555/mo includes Comcast Cable TV, pool, amenities. 2 BIG dogs allowed

8. 2015-04-27
   historical 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   OPEN HOUSE APRIL 26th FROM 1-3PM. Well-maintained 1989 SKYLINE 28x40 DBLWDE within walking distance to shopping, bus route, park, pool. Upgrades: remodeled bathrooms including tub/shwr surrounds, carpet, vinyl flooring, roof, furnace, stove, refrigerator, washer/dryer, ceiling fan, kitchen sink, storm door, and more. Walk-in shower! Check out the DEN! Lot rent will increase to $555/mo includes Comcast Cable TV, pool, amenities. 2 BIG dogs allowed

9. 2015-02-21
   listed $42,500 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   OPEN HOUSE APRIL 26th FROM 1-3PM. Well-maintained 1989 SKYLINE 28x40 DBLWDE within walking distance to shopping, bus route, park, pool. Upgrades: remodeled bathrooms including tub/shwr surrounds, carpet, vinyl flooring, roof, furnace, stove, refrigerator, washer/dryer, ceiling fan, kitchen sink, storm door, and more. Walk-in shower! Check out the DEN! Lot rent will increase to $555/mo includes Comcast Cable TV, pool, amenities. 2 BIG dogs allowed

10. 2004-06-30
    soldstatus $30,000
11. 2004-05-10
    historical
12. 2004-04-20
    listed $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $527 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 54.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$527
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$68
• After-tax cash flow: $734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn Manor SD
• NCES district ID: 4218630
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,275
• Composite: 50.67/100
• National rank: #1826
• State rank: #80 of 539 in PA

Livability — Manor

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #888
• US rank: #9450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 1,171
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 67,571
• Household income: $77,084
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2557.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -508.78%
• Current HPI: 289.3324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+118.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-07 Coming Soon $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-02-03 Sold (MLS) $26,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-01-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-01-09 Listed $29,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-05-19 Sold (MLS) $42,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-04-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-21 Listed $42,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-06-30 Sold (MLS) $30,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-05-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-04-20 Listed $32,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $527 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.