24118 Spring Mill Ln · Spring, TX 77373

$229,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1979 6,708 sqft lot Est $291k · 21% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Thank you for showing!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Large backyard
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 532 students, 84% FRL); Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 10309% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,520
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23819 Creek Ridge Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-13%)	7mo	$210,000	$112	55
2619 Ski Lodge Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,958 (-9%)	11mo	$265,000	$135	43
23510 Treeline Bluff Trl	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,892 (-12%)	20mo	$275,000	$145	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-37,327
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-50,732
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,445 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$511 /mo · $6,130/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,310

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $171	+0% $106	+5% $41	+10% $-24
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $10	+0% $106	+5% $203	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $164	base $106	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-05-23
   soldstatus Closed
2. 2026-05-15
   historical $2,200
3. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-20
   price $229,000
6. 2026-02-21
   listed $2,200
7. 2026-02-03
   price $239,900
8. 2025-12-22
   status Active
9. 2025-12-13
   status Pending
10. 2025-12-02
    listed $249,900 Active
11. 2025-08-12
    historical $2,100
12. 2025-08-06
    listed $2,100
13. 2024-06-14
    historical $2,100
14. 2024-06-07
    listed $2,100
15. 2024-05-30
    historical $2,100
16. 2024-04-08
    listed $2,100
17. 2020-03-04
    soldstatus
18. 2020-03-04
    soldstatus
19. 2018-07-10
    soldstatus
20. 2018-07-06
    soldstatus Sold 22-char remark

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21. 2018-06-28
    status Pending 22-char remark

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22. 2018-06-23
    status Option Pending 22-char remark

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23. 2018-06-13
    status Active 22-char remark

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24. 2018-06-13
    status Pending 22-char remark

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25. 2018-06-11
    listed $133,000 Active 22-char remark

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26. 2011-01-20
    soldstatus
27. 2011-01-18
    soldstatus 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Welcome home!! This beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home is looking for a new family to call it home.Beautifully maintainted yard welcomes your family and friends for an afternoon outside.Cozy fireplace in living area is great for cold winter nights.Spacious bedrooms are perfect for evening retreats. Community pool perfect for summer fun. Close to 45, Hardy Toll Road and The Woodlands. Won't last long! Play set in back yard stays and refrigerator stay with the house.

28. 2010-12-13
    historical 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Welcome home!! This beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home is looking for a new family to call it home.Beautifully maintainted yard welcomes your family and friends for an afternoon outside.Cozy fireplace in living area is great for cold winter nights.Spacious bedrooms are perfect for evening retreats. Community pool perfect for summer fun. Close to 45, Hardy Toll Road and The Woodlands. Won't last long! Play set in back yard stays and refrigerator stay with the house.

29. 2010-10-01
    listed $109,900 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Welcome home!! This beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home is looking for a new family to call it home.Beautifully maintainted yard welcomes your family and friends for an afternoon outside.Cozy fireplace in living area is great for cold winter nights.Spacious bedrooms are perfect for evening retreats. Community pool perfect for summer fun. Close to 45, Hardy Toll Road and The Woodlands. Won't last long! Play set in back yard stays and refrigerator stay with the house.

30. 1980-01-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,130 · $511/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,130 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$6,130
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,347
• − Management: −$2,347
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$2,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$561
• After-tax cash flow: $1,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-04-08 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2020-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-06-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-06-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-11 Listed $133,000 HARMLS
• 2011-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-01-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-12-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-10-01 Listed $109,900 HARMLS
• 1980-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,130 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.