1971 Niagara · Buffalo, NY 14207

$99,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1900 3,484 sqft lot $47/sqft · 47% below area Est $186k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home located on Buffalo’s desirable West Side. This property offers a bright and welcoming layout, spacious bedrooms, and tasteful updates throughout. Pride of ownership is evident from the moment you walk in. Perfect for owner-occupants or investors alike, this home delivers comfort, functionality, and long-term value. A little TLC is needed to turn into something special. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, parks, and major routes, making everyday living easy and accessible.

Key facts

• Tasteful updates
• parks
• Single-family home

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• BRIGHT AND WELCOMING LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS BEDROOMS
• TASTEFUL UPDATES
• DINING
• PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,068/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $99k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.54%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,351
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -46.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
395 Dearborn St	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,182 (+4%)	2mo	$245,000	$112	82
202 Thompson St	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,094 (-1%)	6mo	$180,000	$86	81
41 Hamilton St	0.12mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,954 (-7%)	2mo	$211,150	$108	71
278 East St	0.10mi	4/1.5	1,973 (-6%)	18mo	$185,000	$94	68
162 Dearborn St	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,920 (-9%)	14mo	$230,000	$120	55
280 East St	0.10mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,903 (-10%)	21mo	$190,000	$100	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $61,859
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.85×
• Total profit: $189,751
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $252/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,108	-5% $1,080	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,024	+10% $996
Rent	-10% $889	-5% $970	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,134	+10% $1,215
Rate	-1.0pp $1,102	-0.5pp $1,077	base $1,052	+0.5pp $1,026	+1.0pp $1,000

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
78 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2030	$1,300	$0.64	16d	1	0.76mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$2,560	$1.96	3d	14	0.81mi
139 Fordham Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,700	$1.17	25d	1	1.33mi
61 Baxter St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2014	$1,400	$0.70	3d	1	1.41mi
836 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.5	1982	$4,500	$2.27	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $115,000 Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home located on Buffalo’s desirable West Side. This property offers a bright and welcoming layout, spacious bedrooms, and tasteful updates throughout. Pride of ownership is evident from the moment you walk in. Perfect for owner-occupants or investors alike, this home delivers comfort, functionality, and long-term value. A little TLC is needed to turn into something special. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, parks, and major routes, making everyday living easy and accessible.

17. 2026-03-22
    historical
18. 2026-02-12
    price $119,000
19. 2025-12-22
    listed $139,900 Active
20. 2023-04-05
    historical
21. 2023-02-20
    price $159,900
22. 2023-01-03
    price $104,900
23. 2022-12-29
    listed $129,900 Active
24. 2022-01-15
    historical
25. 2021-10-14
    price $109,000
26. 2021-10-14
    status Active
27. 2021-08-23
    historical
28. 2021-07-15
    listed $129,900 Active
29. 2018-10-19
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed Sale or Rented
30. 2018-08-23
    status Pending Sale
31. 2018-08-01
    listed $60,000 Active
32. 2018-07-27
    historical
33. 2018-06-11
    price $59,900
34. 2018-05-08
    listed $64,900 Active
35. 2017-05-17
    historical Under Contract- Do Not Show
36. 2017-05-03
    historical
37. 2017-04-01
    listed $59,900 Active
38. 2014-06-30
    soldstatus $48,000
39. 2014-06-27
    soldstatus $48,000
40. 2013-12-27
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $252 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$710/yr (+$59/mo · 281.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$252
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $11,670
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,801
• After-tax cash flow: $9,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+109.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-22 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $119,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-04-05 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2023-02-20 Price Changed $159,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-01-03 Price Changed $104,900 UNYREIS
• 2022-12-29 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 2022-01-15 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-14 Price Changed $109,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-10-14 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2021-08-23 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2021-07-15 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-10-19 Sold (MLS) $60,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-08-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-08-01 Listed $60,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-07-27 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2018-06-11 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-05-08 Listed $64,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-05-17 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2017-05-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-04-01 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-06-30 Sold (MLS) $48,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-27 Listed $54,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $252 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.