1740 Canaan Loop · Dundee, FL 33838

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,383 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2020 8,046 sqft lot $116/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Is there a 3-bed single family home in Dundee under $260K with updated systems and move-in ready finishes? 1740 Canaan Loop offers 1,383 square feet of functional living space, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and peace of mind with a roof, HVAC, and water heater all approximately 6 years old. Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single family home located in the Ridge at Swan Lake community in Dundee, Florida. Built in 2020, this home offers 1,383 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on an 8,046 square foot lot, making it an ideal fit for first-time buyers or investors seeking a low-maintenance property with modern features. Inside, you will fi

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• 2 car garage
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ROOF APPROXIMATELY 6 YEARS OLD
• HVAC APPROXIMATELY 6 YEARS OLD
• TILE FLOORING
• 2 CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,383 sq ft (public records); Total building area approximately 1,921 sq ft; Lot approximately 0.18 acres; No waterfront; Property type: Residential
• HOA & community: HOA required (Association: Ridge At Swan Ridge Lake); Quarterly association fee ($350 / $116.67 monthly equivalent); Deed restrictions; Street lights; Sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 20x20 dimensions; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a one-level home
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping; Paved lot; Near public transit; In county

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface countertops; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dundee Elementary Academy (math 51% / reading 56%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 653 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Polk average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,491 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.76%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $115,564
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $361,087
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,305/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$116
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,463

Max offer price $187,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-263	-5% $-336	+0% $-410	+5% $-483	+10% $-557
Rent	-10% $-564	-5% $-487	+0% $-410	+5% $-333	+10% $-256
Rate	-1.0pp $-279	-0.5pp $-344	base $-410	+0.5pp $-477	+1.0pp $-546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,850	$1.32	4d	1	0.23mi
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,049	$1.21	4d	1	0.24mi
403 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1630	$1,950	$1.20	24d	1	0.94mi
391 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,950	$1.10	24d	1	0.94mi
29 Coyer Rd Unit 2 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,000	$1.98	24d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $116 · $1,392/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $259,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $265,000 Active
16. 2021-03-15
    soldstatus $515,500
17. 2020-12-30
    soldstatus $377,300
18. 2019-07-09
    soldstatus $1,796,575

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,305 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,305 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$4,305
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − HOA: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$9,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-85.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $515,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $377,300 Public Records
• 2019-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $1,796,575 Public Records

Property tax history

+30.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,305 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.