Baja Plan · Wylie, TX 75407

$207,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Princeton, TX (6552 Middlebury Ln); Listing status: Active; List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Baja)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,189

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Baja)

🏗️ New construction. The $207,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $221,154.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $208k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-963/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,303 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,154
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6513 Waterfall Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,099 (-8%)	1mo	$219,000	$199	71
6524 Shoreline Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,098 (-8%)	1mo	$215,000	$196	68
6507 Glade St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	2mo	$209,999	$166	65
228 Tall Cedar Way	0.38mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-7%)	1mo	$209,620	$190	64
6728 Teal Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+7%)	0mo	$239,999	$189	62
220 Arbor Dr	0.42mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-7%)	1mo	$204,990	$186	62
217 Tall Cedar Way	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-7%)	3mo	$204,990	$186	62
125 Redwood Rd	0.48mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-7%)	1mo	$204,990	$186	59
6308 Sandpiper Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$217,999	$160	44
6312 Sandpiper Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	2mo	$192,999	$142	44
719 Wagtail Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	2mo	$192,999	$142	41
724 Wagtail Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$195,999	$144	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-46,292
• Equity at exit: $32,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-67,540
• Equity at exit: $19,121

Cash invested: $61,923 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,160
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,317/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,935

Max offer price $209,541

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,288
• Closing costs: $6,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6550 August Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,695	$1.20	4d	1	0.06mi
6561 Alfalfa St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,599	$1.11	44d	1	0.07mi
152 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	13d	1	0.09mi
211 Herman Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.09mi
6723 Coulter Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1018	$1,500	$1.47	44d	1	0.12mi
150 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,899	$1.87	5d	1	0.13mi
6739 Coulter Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,500	$1.30	44d	1	0.15mi
6445 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,649	$1.30	7d	1	0.15mi
206 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,475	$1.28	21d	1	0.15mi
119 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,999	$1.54	13d	1	0.16mi
214 Wheatgrass Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,699	$1.21	44d	1	0.17mi
241 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,850	$1.43	24d	1	0.17mi
230 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,560	$1.20	24d	1	0.17mi
145 Jethro Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,499	$1.45	24d	1	0.21mi
252 Jethro Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.22mi
402 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,665	$1.16	13d	1	0.23mi
134 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,825	$1.27	19d	1	0.25mi
6808 Sunbeam Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,534	$1.33	22d	1	0.25mi
151 Sesame Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1299	$1,634	$1.26	24d	1	0.26mi
6751 Highlands St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,639	$1.16	17d	1	0.27mi
6114 Holly Spring Rd , TX	2.0	2.5	1130	$1,675	$1.48	44d	1	0.29mi
6203 Holly Spring Rd , TX	2.0	2.5	1130	$1,595	$1.41	44d	1	0.29mi
6114 Holly Spring Rd , TX	2.0	2.5	1351	$1,550	$1.15	13d	1	0.29mi
204 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	2.0	2.5	1130	$1,490	$1.32	44d	1	0.33mi
321 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1468	$1,725	$1.18	44d	1	0.40mi
545 Holleman Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,750	$1.19	44d	1	0.45mi
538 Montclair Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,775	$1.41	10d	1	0.45mi
416 Finch CIR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	44d	1	0.47mi
613 Holleman Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,000	$1.59	24d	1	0.51mi
7020 Vining DR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1382	$1,850	$1.34	24d	1	0.51mi
6744 Teal Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,790	$1.21	21d	1	0.52mi
600 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,100	$1.50	13d	1	0.55mi
241 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	44d	1	0.57mi
619 Fisher Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.59mi
143 Plumcove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1376	$2,150	$1.56	44d	1	0.60mi
6222 Sandpiper Ln Unit NA Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	7d	1	0.70mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,675	$1.23	3d	1	0.75mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,675	$1.23	2d	1	0.75mi
623 Linden Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,650	$1.16	44d	1	0.76mi
812 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1309	$1,850	$1.41	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $207,999 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 362-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $207,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,317
• − Insurance: −$1,106
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$6,434
• Taxable loss: −$4,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,144
• After-tax cash flow: $181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve both resale and rental appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve both resale and rental appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B