174 Hawthorne Dr · Arnold Line, MS 39402

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2007 8,276 sqft lot $119/sqft · 15% below area Est $200k · 15% under $8/mo HOA ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Now is your chance to own a home in the highly desirable Oak Grove School District. Located on a quiet cul-de-sac, 174 Hawthorne Drive offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a brand-new roof already in place, saving buyers a major future expense. The fenced backyard provides space for pets, play, or weekend gatherings, complete with a storage shed for extra storage. With a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and schools, this home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers looking to stop renting and start building equity. Schedule a showing and see if this home is the right fit for you.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Brand-new roof
• Storage shed

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in MS, #2,961 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, employment D+.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.17%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,319
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -15.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
59 Lasalle St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,428 (0%)	14mo	$170,000	$119	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,409
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,754
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39402

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,863/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,424

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $213	+0% $165	+5% $117	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $101	+0% $165	+5% $230	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $208	base $165	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
155 Cross Creek Pkwy Unit 0628 Hattiesburg, MS	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,495	$1.08	45d	1	0.87mi
155 Cross Creek Pkwy Unit 0626 Hattiesburg, MS	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,495	$1.08	22d	1	0.87mi
75 Cross Creek Pkwy Hattiesburg, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,600	$1.56	45d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $169,900 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 107 DOM
18. 2026-05-09
    price $169,900 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Now is your chance to own a home in the highly desirable Oak Grove School District. Located on a quiet cul-de-sac, 174 Hawthorne Drive offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a brand-new roof already in place, saving buyers a major future expense. The fenced backyard provides space for pets, play, or weekend gatherings, complete with a storage shed for extra storage. With a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and schools, this home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers looking to stop renting and start building equity. Schedule a showing and see if this home is the right fit for you.

19. 2026-02-12
    listed $179,000 Active 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Now is your chance to own a home in the highly desirable Oak Grove School District. Located on a quiet cul-de-sac, 174 Hawthorne Drive offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a brand-new roof already in place, saving buyers a major future expense. The fenced backyard provides space for pets, play, or weekend gatherings, complete with a storage shed for extra storage. With a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and schools, this home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers looking to stop renting and start building equity. Schedule a showing and see if this home is the right fit for you.

20. 2026-02-12
    listed $179,000 Active 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Now is your chance to own a home in the highly desirable Oak Grove School District. Located on a quiet cul-de-sac, 174 Hawthorne Drive offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a brand-new roof already in place, saving buyers a major future expense. The fenced backyard provides space for pets, play, or weekend gatherings, complete with a storage shed for extra storage. With a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and schools, this home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers looking to stop renting and start building equity. Schedule a showing and see if this home is the right fit for you.

21. 2025-11-22
    status Pending
22. 2025-11-05
    status Active
23. 2025-11-05
    price $164,990
24. 2025-09-02
    status Active
25. 2025-08-11
    price $169,900
26. 2025-07-22
    price $174,000
27. 2025-07-09
    status Active
28. 2025-06-23
    status Active
29. 2025-05-19
    status Pending
30. 2025-04-09
    listed $174,500 Active
31. 2025-04-09
    price $174,500
32. 2024-12-11
    price $179,900
33. 2024-10-09
    listed $219,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,863 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,863 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,863
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$806
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$194
• After-tax cash flow: $2,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802400
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,742
• Composite: 40.77/100
• National rank: #3645
• State rank: #18 of 130 in MS

Livability — Arnold Line

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2961

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arnold Line, MS
• County: Lamar County · 44,620 people
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• Population (ZIP): 44,620
• Household income: $75,220
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,826 people
• By 2030: 77,309 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 87,733 · +22.1%
• By 2050: 97,289 · +35.5%
• By 2075: 115,347 · +60.6%
• By 2100: 125,601 · +74.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.8) · D 25.0% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.0pp toward D · 2008: -55.8pp · 2024: -48.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.8 2020: R+46.9 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+55.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.41%
• Current HPI: 163.5142
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.37%
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-22.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $169,900 HAAR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $179,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-12 Listed $179,000 HAAR
• 2025-11-22 Pending — HAAR
• 2025-11-05 Relisted — HAAR
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $164,990 HAAR
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — HAAR
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $169,900 HAAR
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $174,000 HAAR
• 2025-07-09 Relisted — HAAR
• 2025-06-23 Relisted — HAAR
• 2025-05-19 Pending — HAAR
• 2025-04-09 Listed $174,500 HAAR
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $174,500 HAAR
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $179,900 HAAR
• 2024-10-09 Listed $219,000 HAAR

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,863 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.