609 4th Ave · Wildwood, FL 34785

$124,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1920

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Small house needs repairs or tear down and build. Great low price.

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.9% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,280 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.92%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-215
• Equity at exit: $18,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $24,722
• Equity at exit: $10,721

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34785

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $662/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $386	-5% $351	+0% $316	+5% $281	+10% $246
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $262	+0% $316	+5% $370	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $378	-0.5pp $347	base $316	+0.5pp $284	+1.0pp $251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Sunnyside Dr Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	22d	1	0.52mi
1016 Century Dr Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,399	$1.37	22d	1	0.59mi
805 Peters St Wildwood, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$850	$1.26	22d	1	0.69mi
5901 Myrtle DR Wildwood, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	982	$2,009	$2.05	22d	11	0.71mi
409 Kilgore St Wildwood, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$650	$0.97	22d	1	0.75mi
505 Kilgore St Wildwood, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$650	$0.97	22d	1	0.77mi
6629 Dan DiCiolla Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$1,874	$1.74	22d	44	0.90mi
7011 Homestead Lp Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,469	$1.47	22d	22	1.38mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    listed $124,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$367/yr (+$31/mo · 55.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$662
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable income: $1,857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$446
• After-tax cash flow: $3,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,568
• Household income: $66,136
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.14%
• Current HPI: 267.9137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $124,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $662 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.