2442 Douglas Rd · Cedar Grove, FL 32405

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Other · 10 Days on market

Built 2024 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful champion modern style home is located in Panama City , near by all the major restaurants and stores. This home was built in 2024. Drywall through the entire home. It added a deck and porch with a handicap ramp. Extremely well cared for , you won & acirc; & euro; & trade; t believe it & acirc; & euro; & trade; s a manufactured home. Lot rent is 476$ per month, or you can move this beauty to your land. This particular unit offers a lot of privacy, which is very much appreciated. Zone X meaning it & acirc; & euro; & trade; s a minimum risk of flooding. A must see , it & acirc; & euro; & trade; s beautiful!

Key facts

• Modern style home
• Lot of privacy
• Deck and porch

Tags

• MODERN STYLE HOME
• DECK AND PORCH
• LOT OF PRIVACY
• MINIMUM RISK OF FLOODING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2024
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,240
• Exterior features: Located in the Cedar Grove subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#445 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.57%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,447
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $43,867
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $631	-5% $589	+0% $548	+5% $506	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $410	-5% $479	+0% $548	+5% $617	+10% $686
Rate	-1.0pp $608	-0.5pp $578	base $548	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2733 Carol Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	21d	1	0.54mi
1637 N James Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,275	$1.31	21d	1	0.94mi
2623 E 16th St Unit A Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	21d	1	0.98mi
3530 Game Farm Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	1.48mi
2002 Wilson Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,260	$2.31	14d	25	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 625-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,960
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $5,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in fair condition with good kitchen and bathrooms. It needs minor repairs to the exterior siding and landscaping to improve its curb appeal and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance suggests minor damage.
• Minor Landscaping — Basic landscaping could be improved with some work.
• Minor Exterior paint — Siding appears weathered and could benefit from repainting.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal.
• Rental Landscaping — Improved landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value.
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and attract more buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance suggests minor damage.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Basic landscaping could be improved with some work.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior paint · Siding appears weathered and could benefit from repainting.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Improved landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and attract more buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cedar Grove

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #8018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Grove, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $120,000 FSBO.com