15137 NE 141st St · Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1969 1.01 ac lot $94/sqft · 18% below area Est $159k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom single-family home sits on over 1 acre of land with no HOA restrictions. The property needs significant repairs, including a new roof, and is being sold cash only. Located in Fort McCoy, an unincorporated community in Marion County, Florida, this property offers a peaceful, rural setting while still being conveniently positioned northeast of Ocala. It lies between Sparr and Eureka along County Road 316, and just north of Silver Springs via County Road 315. With over an acre of land, there's plenty of room for expansion, storage, or outdoor activities. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to renovate and customize.

Key facts

• Acre of land
• No hoa restrictions
• Room for expansion

Tags

• ACRE OF LAND
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• NEW ROOF
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING
• ROOM FOR EXPANSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 5.8% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $130k implies a 271% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.15%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,807
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -18.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $13,968
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $57,163
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32134

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $663/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,001

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-02-17
    listed $130,000 Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom single-family home sits on over 1 acre of land with no HOA restrictions. The property needs significant repairs, including a new roof, and is being sold cash only. Located in Fort McCoy, an unincorporated community in Marion County, Florida, this property offers a peaceful, rural setting while still being conveniently positioned northeast of Ocala. It lies between Sparr and Eureka along County Road 316, and just north of Silver Springs via County Road 315. With over an acre of land, there's plenty of room for expansion, storage, or outdoor activities. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to renovate and customize.

17. 2004-03-31
    soldstatus $35,000 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    PROPERTY AQUIRED THROUGH FORECLOSURE. FOR SALE AS-IS WITH RIGHT TO INSPECT. CLA BEFORE WRITTING OFFER, PROOF OF FUNDS MUST ACCOMPANY. COMMISSION ONLY UPON CLOSING. LOCBOX CODE T-R-I.

18. 2004-01-14
    listed $36,500 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    PROPERTY AQUIRED THROUGH FORECLOSURE. FOR SALE AS-IS WITH RIGHT TO INSPECT. CLA BEFORE WRITTING OFFER, PROOF OF FUNDS MUST ACCOMPANY. COMMISSION ONLY UPON CLOSING. LOCBOX CODE T-R-I.

19. 1970-06-01
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $663 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$416/yr (+$35/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$663
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $4,744
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,139
• After-tax cash flow: $5,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,400

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.45%
• Current HPI: 224.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1429.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $130,000 Beaches MLS
• 2004-03-31 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-14 Listed $36,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1970-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $663 · +51.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.