458 Balsawood Dr · Redding, CA 96003

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1977 $52/sqft · 13% below area Est $80k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS SPACIOUS FULLY FURNISHED, WELL-LOVED 2/2 HOME AT SPACE 109 IS WITHIN A 55+ MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY WHICH OFFERS RV STORAGE, A COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOL, JACUZI, SAUNA, KITCHEN, LIBRARY, PICNIC & BBQ AREA, BILLIARDS, CLUB HOUSE, LAUNDRY FACILITIES, BANQUET & GAME ROOMS. IT IS ALSO PET FRIENDLY. THE NEWER ROOF IS 4 YEARS NEW.

Key facts

• Sauna
• Kitchen
• Rv storage

Tags

• MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY
• RV STORAGE
• COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOL
• JACUZZI
• SAUNA
• KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $70k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.85%
• DSCR: 3.35
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,048
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -12.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
458 Balsawood Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	99
4555 Underwood Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$99,000	$69	76
301 Sapwood Dr #280	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$65,900	$46	75
323 Sapwood Dr Sp# 279 Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$89,000	$62	75
362 Lemon Dr #24	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$76,100	$61	72
4587 Hardwood Blvd Sp#202 Blvd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$95,000	$66	70
4719 Maple Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+13%)	3mo	$181,500	$119	61
11037 Erickson Way #76	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$28,800	$21	60
4576 Hickory Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-11%)	2mo	$119,000	$99	59
4649 Underwood Dr #257	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	4mo	$75,000	$49	58
1350 Aztec Path #229	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	6mo	$95,000	$65	57
1318 Mountain Shadows Blvd #255	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-15%)	2mo	$95,000	$83	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $48,589
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.87×
• Total profit: $134,724
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $163/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $519

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $903	-5% $883	+0% $863	+5% $843	+10% $824
Rent	-10% $736	-5% $800	+0% $863	+5% $927	+10% $991
Rate	-1.0pp $898	-0.5pp $881	base $863	+0.5pp $845	+1.0pp $827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4490 Alder St Unit C Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	21d	1	0.29mi
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	13d	1	0.31mi
400 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,310	$1.46	13d	1	0.36mi
4296 Clay St Unit 17 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	21d	1	0.41mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.52mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	44d	1	0.52mi
150 Masonic Ave Unit 1 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.52mi
170 Masonic Ave #4 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.53mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,295	$1.31	13d	8	0.71mi
251 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,475	$1.95	13d	1	0.80mi
4288 Bradley Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	21d	1	0.80mi
500 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1282	$1,700	$1.33	13d	4	1.32mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	44d	1	1.35mi
6053 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	13d	1	1.40mi
6073 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	13d	1	1.42mi
550 Mission de Oro Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,995	$1.40	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $70,000 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $70,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $70,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-04-24
   price $70,000 338-char remark

   Show marketing remark (338 chars)

   THIS SPACIOUS FULLY FURNISHED, WELL-LOVED 2/2 HOME AT SPACE 109 IS WITHIN A 55+ MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY WHICH OFFERS RV STORAGE, A COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOL, JACUZI, SAUNA, KITCHEN, LIBRARY, PICNIC & BBQ AREA, BILLIARDS, CLUB HOUSE, LAUNDRY FACILITIES, BANQUET & GAME ROOMS. IT IS ALSO PET FRIENDLY. THE NEWER ROOF IS 4 YEARS NEW.

7. 2026-04-01
   price $73,000 338-char remark

   Show marketing remark (338 chars)

   THIS SPACIOUS FULLY FURNISHED, WELL-LOVED 2/2 HOME AT SPACE 109 IS WITHIN A 55+ MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY WHICH OFFERS RV STORAGE, A COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOL, JACUZI, SAUNA, KITCHEN, LIBRARY, PICNIC & BBQ AREA, BILLIARDS, CLUB HOUSE, LAUNDRY FACILITIES, BANQUET & GAME ROOMS. IT IS ALSO PET FRIENDLY. THE NEWER ROOF IS 4 YEARS NEW.

8. 2026-03-17
   listed $78,500 Active 338-char remark

   Show marketing remark (338 chars)

   THIS SPACIOUS FULLY FURNISHED, WELL-LOVED 2/2 HOME AT SPACE 109 IS WITHIN A 55+ MOBILE HOME COMMUNITY WHICH OFFERS RV STORAGE, A COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOL, JACUZI, SAUNA, KITCHEN, LIBRARY, PICNIC & BBQ AREA, BILLIARDS, CLUB HOUSE, LAUNDRY FACILITIES, BANQUET & GAME ROOMS. IT IS ALSO PET FRIENDLY. THE NEWER ROOF IS 4 YEARS NEW.

9. 2017-07-27
   soldstatus $30,000 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Very Clean home with many upgrades newer Fridge, washer dryer, Heating system. Newer flooring as well. This is one of the more favored parks in the area. 55 or older. CB859

10. 2017-06-27
    listed $32,500 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Very Clean home with many upgrades newer Fridge, washer dryer, Heating system. Newer flooring as well. This is one of the more favored parks in the area. 55 or older. CB859

11. 2016-05-13
    soldstatus $17,500
12. 2016-04-04
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $163 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$369/yr (+$31/mo · 226.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$163
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,345
• After-tax cash flow: $8,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+180.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $70,000 SAOR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $73,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $78,500 SAOR
• 2017-07-27 Sold (MLS) $30,000 SAOR
• 2017-06-27 Listed $32,500 SAOR
• 2016-05-13 Sold (MLS) $17,500 SAOR
• 2016-04-04 Listed $25,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+47.2%/yr

Latest (2020): $163 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.