433 Marion Loop · Haines City, FL 33844

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,773 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 6,244 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Don't miss your opportunity to own the only quick-delivery Haven plan ready for Summer completion in Marion Ridge! Discover the perfect blend of style and comfort in this beautifully designed home, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage—all within an open-concept layout and impressive 9' ceilings. Tile flooring flows through the main living areas, providing both style and durability. The well-appointed kitchen is a standout with quartz countertops, elegant cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, a large center island, and convenient pantry closet. The luxurious Primary suite features an en-suite bathroom including a spacious walk-in closet, dual sinks in a

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large center island
• Tile flooring

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• TILE FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• PANTRY CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.14 acres (52 x 120); Builder warranty/permit info available (builder license CGC1533068)
• HOA & community: HOA managed by EMPIRE MANAGEMENT GROUP/Lee Weiss; Monthly HOA fee $80 (includes common area taxes); Association amenities: park, playground; association recreation owned; deed restrictions; sidewalks; street lights; fence restrictions; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18 x 21) with driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Cable available; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion July 30, 2026); Faces south
• Construction: Cement siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Risewell Homes (Builder model: Haven)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Paved road access; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Double pane insulated windows; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Inside utility/Great Room access

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-691/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $232,769 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-56,585
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-71,028
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,419/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $289,831

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $27	+0% $-58	+5% $-142	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-150	+0% $-58	+5% $34	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $19	base $-58	+0.5pp $-135	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
570 Feltrim Manor Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,400	$1.31	25d	1	0.09mi
239 Tarpon Bay Blvd Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,300	$1.22	16d	1	0.22mi
148 Roseville Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$1,799	$1.10	15d	1	0.23mi
768 Richmond Estate Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	25d	1	0.25mi
662 Fairview Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	4d	1	0.27mi
1123 Patriot Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,150	$1.19	16d	1	0.39mi
3139 Cedar Crossing Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,795	$1.19	5d	1	0.50mi
1354 Normandy Dr Haines City, FL	5.0	2.0	2210	$2,290	$1.04	25d	1	0.52mi
1313 Tank Trl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,095	$1.44	25d	1	0.56mi
1336 Madison Cir Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,800	$1.62	25d	1	0.70mi
1339 Madison Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,990	$1.37	23d	1	0.70mi
375 Boardwalk Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,350	$1.36	16d	1	0.86mi
128 Arlington Square Ct Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,300	$1.57	16d	1	1.13mi
1916 Verano Dr Unit 1916C Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1727	$1,900	$1.10	25d	1	1.16mi
833 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1887	$1,950	$1.03	12d	1	1.21mi
671 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,200	$1.13	12d	1	1.29mi
1717 Frogmore Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	25d	1	1.30mi
755 Staffora St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,799	$1.16	25d	1	1.31mi
751 Staffora St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	1.32mi
660 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,000	$1.08	25d	1	1.32mi
835 Ofanto Way Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2080	$2,350	$1.13	25d	1	1.33mi
640 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$2,100	$1.06	25d	1	1.37mi
815 Ofanto Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,500	$1.60	5d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $300,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $300,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $323,990 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $323,990 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $323,990 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $323,990 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $323,990 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $323,990 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $323,990 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $323,990 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $323,990 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $323,990 Active
17. 2025-07-01
    soldstatus $3,228,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,071/yr (+$89/mo · 75.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,419
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,235
• − Management: −$2,235
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,947
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,427
• After-tax cash flow: $737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-90.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $323,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $3,228,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,419 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.