1914 Woodway Dr · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$189,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1977 9,596 sqft lot $159/sqft · 15% below area Est $223k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on an expansive corner lot shaded by mature trees, this beautifully maintained single-story home offers a peaceful retreat in a quiet, established neighborhood. The versatile layout features four spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, including a front-facing fourth bedroom that serves perfectly as a private home office. Peace of mind comes standard with significant upgrades, including a roof replaced in 2016 and energy-efficient windows installed in 2015. At the heart of the home, the inviting family room centers around a cozy wood-burning fireplace and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, making it an ideal space for gatherings. Step outside to find a generously sized, fenced backyard complete with a covered patio—perfect for outdoor entertaining. Located in the New Caney ISD with an impressively low tax rate of 2.3783, this property combines affordability with a prime location near Valley Ranch, Kingwood, and major commuter routes like I-69, Grand Parkway 99, and Bush IAH.

Key facts

• Significant upgrades
• Corner lot
• Mature trees

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• PRIVATE HOME OFFICE
• SIGNIFICANT UPGRADES
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.4% in Woodbranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 984 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $190k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,206
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -14.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,074
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-22,875
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 984
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,947/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $334	-5% $280	+0% $227	+5% $173	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $142	+0% $227	+5% $311	+10% $396
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $275	base $227	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
630 Magnolia Bnd Roman Forest, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,545	$1.07	25d	1	0.94mi
634 Magnolia Bnd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,485	$1.02	21d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Pending 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $189,900 Pending 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Situated on an expansive corner lot shaded by mature trees, this beautifully maintained single-story home offers a peaceful retreat in a quiet, established neighborhood. The versatile layout features four spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, including a front-facing fourth bedroom that serves perfectly as a private home office. Peace of mind comes standard with significant upgrades, including a roof replaced in 2016 and energy-efficient windows installed in 2015. At the heart of the home, the inviting family room centers around a cozy wood-burning fireplace and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, making it an ideal space for gatherings. Step outside to find a generously sized, fenced backyard complete with a covered patio—perfect for outdoor entertaining. Located in the New Caney ISD with an impressively low tax rate of 2.3783, this property combines affordability with a prime location near Valley Ranch, Kingwood, and major commuter routes like I-69, Grand Parkway 99, and Bush IAH.

17. 2026-05-02
    status Pending 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Situated on an expansive corner lot shaded by mature trees, this beautifully maintained single-story home offers a peaceful retreat in a quiet, established neighborhood. The versatile layout features four spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, including a front-facing fourth bedroom that serves perfectly as a private home office. Peace of mind comes standard with significant upgrades, including a roof replaced in 2016 and energy-efficient windows installed in 2015. At the heart of the home, the inviting family room centers around a cozy wood-burning fireplace and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, making it an ideal space for gatherings. Step outside to find a generously sized, fenced backyard complete with a covered patio—perfect for outdoor entertaining. Located in the New Caney ISD with an impressively low tax rate of 2.3783, this property combines affordability with a prime location near Valley Ranch, Kingwood, and major commuter routes like I-69, Grand Parkway 99, and Bush IAH.

18. 2026-04-23
    status Pending 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Situated on an expansive corner lot shaded by mature trees, this beautifully maintained single-story home offers a peaceful retreat in a quiet, established neighborhood. The versatile layout features four spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, including a front-facing fourth bedroom that serves perfectly as a private home office. Peace of mind comes standard with significant upgrades, including a roof replaced in 2016 and energy-efficient windows installed in 2015. At the heart of the home, the inviting family room centers around a cozy wood-burning fireplace and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, making it an ideal space for gatherings. Step outside to find a generously sized, fenced backyard complete with a covered patio—perfect for outdoor entertaining. Located in the New Caney ISD with an impressively low tax rate of 2.3783, this property combines affordability with a prime location near Valley Ranch, Kingwood, and major commuter routes like I-69, Grand Parkway 99, and Bush IAH.

19. 2026-03-31
    listed $189,900 Active 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Situated on an expansive corner lot shaded by mature trees, this beautifully maintained single-story home offers a peaceful retreat in a quiet, established neighborhood. The versatile layout features four spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, including a front-facing fourth bedroom that serves perfectly as a private home office. Peace of mind comes standard with significant upgrades, including a roof replaced in 2016 and energy-efficient windows installed in 2015. At the heart of the home, the inviting family room centers around a cozy wood-burning fireplace and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, making it an ideal space for gatherings. Step outside to find a generously sized, fenced backyard complete with a covered patio—perfect for outdoor entertaining. Located in the New Caney ISD with an impressively low tax rate of 2.3783, this property combines affordability with a prime location near Valley Ranch, Kingwood, and major commuter routes like I-69, Grand Parkway 99, and Bush IAH.

20. 2025-09-17
    price $185,000
21. 2025-09-17
    historical
22. 2025-08-29
    price $192,000
23. 2025-08-21
    listed $199,000 Active
24. 2025-08-01
    historical
25. 2025-07-10
    listed $199,000 Active
26. 2025-06-11
    historical
27. 2025-01-04
    price $209,800
28. 2024-12-28
    listed $219,900 Active
29. 2024-10-01
    historical
30. 2024-07-30
    price $232,888
31. 2024-06-07
    status Active
32. 2024-06-06
    status Option Pending
33. 2024-05-11
    listed $245,888 Active
34. 2024-04-27
    historical
35. 2024-03-29
    historical
36. 2024-03-20
    price $230,000
37. 2024-01-03
    listed $235,000 Active
38. 2024-01-03
    historical
39. 2023-10-10
    status Active
40. 2023-10-06
    status Option Pending
41. 2023-09-22
    listed $235,000 Active
42. 2021-12-06
    soldstatus Sold
43. 2021-12-06
    soldstatus
44. 2021-12-05
    status Pending
45. 2021-11-28
    status Option Pending
46. 2021-11-23
    price $199,990
47. 2021-10-28
    listed $205,000 Active
48. 2021-10-28
    historical
49. 2021-08-31
    price $214,900
50. 2021-08-09
    listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,947 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,947 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,947
• − Insurance: −$1,747
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$49
• After-tax cash flow: $2,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbranch, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+178.3% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $192,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $209,800 HARMLS
• 2024-12-28 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $232,888 HARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-06-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-11 Listed $245,888 HARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-03-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-20 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-12-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-23 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2021-10-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-10-28 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-31 Price Changed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-09 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2017-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $68,229 Public Records
• 1997-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,947 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.