The Graysen Plan · Spring Hill, KS 66083

$350,614

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Graysen is a single-level home that delivers everyday ease with an open, elegant layout. Starting at 1,635 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2- or 3-car garage option, the Graysen offers thoughtful features for a wide variety of buyers, all on a slab foundation for simpler maintenance and accessibility. At the heart of the home, a spacious living room connects to the kitchen and dining area in a bright, open-concept design that's perfect for entertaining or cozy nights in. The kitchen island is ideal for prep, dining, and gathering, while the adjacent covered patio invites you outdoors with ease. The private primary suite features a large walk-in closet and an en suite bath.

Key facts

• Slab foundation
• Open layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SLAB FOUNDATION
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $350,614 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $516,364.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $351k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.2% in Spring Hill — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#93 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring Hill (rural): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #11 of 169 in KS (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolf Creek Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #131 of 684 statewide, top 23%, 303 students, 11% FRL); Spring Hill Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #89 of 219 statewide, top 40%, 471 students, 24% FRL); Spring Hill High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #26 of 327 statewide, top 8%, 983 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,037 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.45%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $516,364
• List price: $350,614
• Delta: -32.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20515 Millview Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,666 (-1%)	2mo	$376,826	$226	82
20686 Skyview Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+1%)	4mo	$369,990	$219	78
18908 Skyview Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+3%)	2mo	$455,000	$263	75
18506 W 194th Ter	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+3%)	4mo	$518,900	$301	73
20523 Newcastle St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-2%)	1mo	$375,493	$230	72
18615 W 193rd St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,779 (+6%)	1mo	$589,950	$332	71
20566 Newcastle St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-4%)	0mo	$409,946	$256	71
19716 W 196th St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,667 (-0%)	4mo	$369,900	$222	67
18808 Skyview Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+3%)	5mo	$489,500	$283	65
19002 Millview St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-11%)	2mo	$415,000	$277	65
19435 Lincoln St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-11%)	2mo	$339,990	$227	43
19459 Lincoln St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-11%)	3mo	$347,445	$232	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-171,517
• Equity at exit: $76,991

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-262,350
• Equity at exit: $44,646

Cash invested: $144,582 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.6 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $425,559 ($253/sqft)
• Median days on market: 183 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 66083

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$645 /mo · $7,745/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-1,380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,517

Max offer price $316,693

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,023	-5% $-1,201	+0% $-1,380	+5% $-1,558	+10% $-1,737
Rent	-10% $-1,599	-5% $-1,489	+0% $-1,380	+5% $-1,270	+10% $-1,161
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,120	-0.5pp $-1,249	base $-1,380	+0.5pp $-1,514	+1.0pp $-1,650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,091
• Closing costs: $15,491
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19427 Lincoln St Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,265	$1.80	5d	1	0.68mi
19604 199th Ter Spring Hill, KS	4.0	3.5	2019	$2,995	$1.48	42d	1	0.85mi
20368 W 194th Ter Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,295	$2.19	119d	1	0.88mi
19615 199th Ter Spring Hill, KS	4.0	3.5	2019	$2,995	$1.48	10d	1	0.94mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $350,614

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: The Graysen planNew construction plan
• Construction: Built as The Graysen plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Plan home located at W 205th St, Spring Hill

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)3 bedrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $350,614 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $350,614 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $350,614 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $350,614 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $350,614 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $350,614 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $350,614 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $350,614 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $350,614 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $350,614 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $350,614 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $350,614 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $350,614 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $350,614 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $350,614 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $350,614 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $350,614 Active 115 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $350,614 Active 113 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $350,614 Active 112 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $350,614 Active 111 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $350,614 Active 110 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $350,614 Active 109 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $350,614 Active 108 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $350,614 Active 107 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $350,614 Active 106 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $350,614 Active 105 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $350,614 Active 104 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $350,614 Active 103 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $350,614 Active 102 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $350,614 Active 101 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $350,614 Active 100 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $350,614 Active 99 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $350,614 Active 98 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $350,614 Active 97 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $350,614 Active 96 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $350,614 Active 95 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $350,614 Active 94 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $350,614 Active 93 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $350,614 Active 92 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $350,614 Active 91 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $350,614 Active 90 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $350,614 Active 89 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $350,614 Active 88 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $350,614 Active 87 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $350,614 Active 84 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $350,614 Active 83 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $350,614 Active 82 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $350,614 Active 81 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $350,614 Active 79 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $350,614 Active 77 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,924
• − Property taxes: −$7,745
• − Insurance: −$2,582
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,660
• − Management: −$2,660
• − Depreciation: −$15,021
• Taxable loss: −$26,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,323
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Graysen Plan is a well-maintained single-level home with good condition and curb appeal. Minor updates to exterior paint and landscaping, along with kitchen and bathroom upgrades, can significantly enhance its value for resale or rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase appeal and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wolf Creek Elementary School C- KS #131/684 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Spring Hill Middle School F KS #89/219 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Spring Hill High School F KS #26/327 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Hill
• NCES district ID: 2011850
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,172
• Composite: 40.26/100
• National rank: #3767
• State rank: #11 of 169 in KS

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #5370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, KS
• County: Johnson County · 663,396 people
• City population: 13,011
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 13,011
• Household income: $116,791
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 663,396 people
• By 2030: 702,585 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 775,386 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 841,772 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 994,137 · +49.9%
• By 2100: 1,073,036 · +61.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 53.4% · R 44.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.0pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+2.7 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 265.6494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $350,614

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: The Graysen planNew construction plan
• Construction: Built as The Graysen plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Plan home located at W 205th St, Spring Hill

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)3 bedrooms