263 Hawthorn Dr · Lavon, TX 75166

$325,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 5,489 sqft lot $157/sqft · 15% below area Est $383k · 15% under $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why wait (or pay more) for new construction? This home is just like new and priced to sell—giving you modern style without the new-build price tag. Lightly lived in and beautifully maintained, it features an open layout made for gathering and entertaining. The kitchen steals the show with tons of cabinets, a large island, coffee bar, and sleek finishes, flowing effortlessly into a jumbo living space. The split primary suite offers a quiet retreat, while a secondary bedroom with ensuite bath is perfect for guests, kids, or in-laws. Outside, enjoy a covered patio and a backyard that’s easy to maintain but big enough to enjoy. Move-in ready and an incredible value—don’t miss this one. Seller is offering a $5,000 toward buyer concessions with an acceptable offer!

Key facts

• Jumbo living space
• Split primary suite
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• KITCHEN WITH TONS OF CABINETS
• LARGE ISLAND
• COFFEE BAR
• JUMBO LIVING SPACE
• SPLIT PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,523 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,336
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -15.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
361 Forage Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,072 (0%)	2mo	$318,000	$153	92
9753 Sunset Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,156 (+4%)	4mo	$475,000	$220	68
484 Harding Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,155 (+4%)	4mo	$309,500	$144	64
337 Forage Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,839 (-11%)	5mo	$335,000	$182	63
252 Rosewood Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-11%)	3mo	$314,900	$171	62
102 Winterwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,137 (+3%)	2mo	$379,990	$178	54
9527 County Road 540	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,205 (+6%)	4mo	$389,900	$177	51
420 Wolf Run Ct	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,874 (-10%)	6mo	$374,900	$200	49
466 Hayes St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,873 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$149	48
165 Winterwood Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,866 (-10%)	2mo	$389,900	$209	47
115 Wild Oak Gln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,857 (-10%)	5mo	$349,990	$188	43
326 W Autumn Hill Blf	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,329 (+12%)	3mo	$409,900	$176	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-69,043
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-80,772
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$544 /mo · $6,522/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,084

Max offer price $279,131

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-168	+0% $-260	+5% $-352	+10% $-444
Rent	-10% $-477	-5% $-368	+0% $-260	+5% $-151	+10% $-42
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-177	base $-260	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	45d	1	0.05mi
239 Tallgrass Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2394	$3,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.09mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	26d	1	0.10mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	6d	1	0.40mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	22d	1	0.44mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	45d	1	0.44mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	45d	1	0.46mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	45d	1	0.47mi
500 Mustang Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	2280	$2,195	$0.96	26d	1	0.67mi
144 Millwood Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	2700	$2,600	$0.96	45d	1	0.78mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,029	$1.77	1d	25	0.78mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,900	$1.21	26d	1	0.87mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	26d	1	0.91mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	45d	1	0.94mi
1156 Del Rio Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,895	$1.14	26d	1	0.95mi
253 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2687	$2,600	$0.97	45d	1	0.97mi
304 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2900	$2,900	$1.00	0d	1	1.00mi
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	45d	1	1.01mi
731 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2542	$2,400	$0.94	45d	1	1.01mi
830 Oakhurst Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,495	$0.92	26d	1	1.04mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	26d	1	1.06mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	4d	1	1.06mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	14d	1	1.08mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	26d	1	1.10mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	45d	1	1.12mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	45d	1	1.15mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	26d	1	1.17mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	1.18mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	45d	1	1.18mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	17d	1	1.20mi
637 Sierra Rdg Lavon, TX	5.0	4.0	2937	$3,950	$1.34	45d	1	1.20mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	17d	1	1.20mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	8d	1	1.21mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	45d	1	1.21mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	9d	1	1.21mi
964 Dahlia Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2062	$3,550	$1.72	9d	1	1.22mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	1.23mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	17d	1	1.24mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	9d	1	1.24mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $325,000 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Why wait (or pay more) for new construction? This home is just like new and priced to sell—giving you modern style without the new-build price tag. Lightly lived in and beautifully maintained, it features an open layout made for gathering and entertaining. The kitchen steals the show with tons of cabinets, a large island, coffee bar, and sleek finishes, flowing effortlessly into a jumbo living space. The split primary suite offers a quiet retreat, while a secondary bedroom with ensuite bath is perfect for guests, kids, or in-laws. Outside, enjoy a covered patio and a backyard that’s easy to maintain but big enough to enjoy. Move-in ready and an incredible value—don’t miss this one. Seller is offering a $5,000 toward buyer concessions with an acceptable offer!

17. 2026-02-02
    status Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Why wait (or pay more) for new construction? This home is just like new and priced to sell—giving you modern style without the new-build price tag. Lightly lived in and beautifully maintained, it features an open layout made for gathering and entertaining. The kitchen steals the show with tons of cabinets, a large island, coffee bar, and sleek finishes, flowing effortlessly into a jumbo living space. The split primary suite offers a quiet retreat, while a secondary bedroom with ensuite bath is perfect for guests, kids, or in-laws. Outside, enjoy a covered patio and a backyard that’s easy to maintain but big enough to enjoy. Move-in ready and an incredible value—don’t miss this one. Seller is offering a $5,000 toward buyer concessions with an acceptable offer!

18. 2026-01-28
    historical Active Option Contract 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Why wait (or pay more) for new construction? This home is just like new and priced to sell—giving you modern style without the new-build price tag. Lightly lived in and beautifully maintained, it features an open layout made for gathering and entertaining. The kitchen steals the show with tons of cabinets, a large island, coffee bar, and sleek finishes, flowing effortlessly into a jumbo living space. The split primary suite offers a quiet retreat, while a secondary bedroom with ensuite bath is perfect for guests, kids, or in-laws. Outside, enjoy a covered patio and a backyard that’s easy to maintain but big enough to enjoy. Move-in ready and an incredible value—don’t miss this one. Seller is offering a $5,000 toward buyer concessions with an acceptable offer!

19. 2026-01-12
    listed $330,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Why wait (or pay more) for new construction? This home is just like new and priced to sell—giving you modern style without the new-build price tag. Lightly lived in and beautifully maintained, it features an open layout made for gathering and entertaining. The kitchen steals the show with tons of cabinets, a large island, coffee bar, and sleek finishes, flowing effortlessly into a jumbo living space. The split primary suite offers a quiet retreat, while a secondary bedroom with ensuite bath is perfect for guests, kids, or in-laws. Outside, enjoy a covered patio and a backyard that’s easy to maintain but big enough to enjoy. Move-in ready and an incredible value—don’t miss this one. Seller is offering a $5,000 toward buyer concessions with an acceptable offer!

20. 2025-11-21
    historical
21. 2025-09-25
    price $340,000
22. 2025-05-18
    listed $350,000 Active
23. 2025-04-13
    historical
24. 2024-10-13
    price $365,000
25. 2024-09-02
    price $377,400
26. 2024-04-13
    listed $387,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,522 · $544/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,522 · $544/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$6,522
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,645
• − Management: −$2,645
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$8,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,081
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a move-in-ready appearance. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Replace blinds — New blinds can improve light control and aesthetics
• Both Clean and organize interior — A clean and organized interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds — New blinds can improve light control and aesthetics ↑
• Both Clean and organize interior — A clean and organized interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lavon, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $330,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $340,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-18 Listed $350,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-13 Price Changed $365,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-02 Price Changed $377,400 NTREIS
• 2024-04-13 Listed $387,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+55.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,522 · -10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.