130 M- College Ave · Licking, MO 65542

$44,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2005 6,969 sqft lot $36/sqft · at area comps Est $45k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across from the schools in Licking, MO. Manufactured in 2005, this 1,248 sq ft home features a split-bedroom layout. New vinyl flooring and other updates throughout and is equipped with central heating and air for year-round comfort. Outside, you'll find both a front and back deck, a fully fenced yard ideal for pets, and two portable garages that can stay with the property, offering additional storage or covered parking. Situated on a 0.16-acre lot with city utilities, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for an affordable home in a convenient location with the chance to make it their own. Schedule a showing to see the potential for yourself. Will Sell Cash, Conventional, or Owner Finance.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Two portable garages
• Front and back deck

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• CENTRAL HEATING AND AIR
• FRONT AND BACK DECK
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• TWO PORTABLE GARAGES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 3.3% in Licking — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Licking R-VIII (rural): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #203 of 324 in MO (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Texas County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Texas County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,456 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.10%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,800
• List price: $44,800
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 M- College Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	0mo	$44,800	$36	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $40,542
• Equity at exit: $20,637

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.59×
• Total profit: $95,149
• Equity at exit: $32,192

Cash invested: $12,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65542

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $310/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $354

Max offer price $44,800

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,200
• Closing costs: $1,344
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across from the schools in Licking, MO. Manufactured in 2005, this 1,248 sq ft home features a split-bedroom layout. New vinyl flooring and other updates throughout and is equipped with central heating and air for year-round comfort. Outside, you'll find both a front and back deck, a fully fenced yard ideal for pets, and two portable garages that can stay with the property, offering additional storage or covered parking. Situated on a 0.16-acre lot with city utilities, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for an affordable home in a convenient location with the chance to make it their own. Schedule a showing to see the potential for yourself. Will Sell Cash, Conventional, or Owner Finance.

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across from the schools in Licking, MO. Manufactured in 2005, this 1,248 sq ft home features a split-bedroom layout. New vinyl flooring and other updates throughout and is equipped with central heating and air for year-round comfort. Outside, you'll find both a front and back deck, a fully fenced yard ideal for pets, and two portable garages that can stay with the property, offering additional storage or covered parking. Situated on a 0.16-acre lot with city utilities, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for an affordable home in a convenient location with the chance to make it their own. Schedule a showing to see the potential for yourself. Will Sell Cash, Conventional, or Owner Finance

3. 2026-03-30
   price $44,800 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across from the schools in Licking, MO. Manufactured in 2005, this 1,248 sq ft home features a split-bedroom layout. New vinyl flooring and other updates throughout and is equipped with central heating and air for year-round comfort. Outside, you'll find both a front and back deck, a fully fenced yard ideal for pets, and two portable garages that can stay with the property, offering additional storage or covered parking. Situated on a 0.16-acre lot with city utilities, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for an affordable home in a convenient location with the chance to make it their own. Schedule a showing to see the potential for yourself. Will Sell Cash, Conventional, or Owner Finance.

4. 2026-03-28
   price $44,800 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across from the schools in Licking, MO. Manufactured in 2005, this 1,248 sq ft home features a split-bedroom layout. New vinyl flooring and other updates throughout and is equipped with central heating and air for year-round comfort. Outside, you'll find both a front and back deck, a fully fenced yard ideal for pets, and two portable garages that can stay with the property, offering additional storage or covered parking. Situated on a 0.16-acre lot with city utilities, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for an affordable home in a convenient location with the chance to make it their own. Schedule a showing to see the potential for yourself. Will Sell Cash, Conventional, or Owner Finance

5. 2026-03-18
   listed $49,800 Active 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across from the schools in Licking, MO. Manufactured in 2005, this 1,248 sq ft home features a split-bedroom layout. New vinyl flooring and other updates throughout and is equipped with central heating and air for year-round comfort. Outside, you'll find both a front and back deck, a fully fenced yard ideal for pets, and two portable garages that can stay with the property, offering additional storage or covered parking. Situated on a 0.16-acre lot with city utilities, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for an affordable home in a convenient location with the chance to make it their own. Schedule a showing to see the potential for yourself. Will Sell Cash, Conventional, or Owner Finance.

6. 2026-03-14
   listed $49,800 Active 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located directly across from the schools in Licking, MO. Manufactured in 2005, this 1,248 sq ft home features a split-bedroom layout. New vinyl flooring and other updates throughout and is equipped with central heating and air for year-round comfort. Outside, you'll find both a front and back deck, a fully fenced yard ideal for pets, and two portable garages that can stay with the property, offering additional storage or covered parking. Situated on a 0.16-acre lot with city utilities, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for an affordable home in a convenient location with the chance to make it their own. Schedule a showing to see the potential for yourself. Will Sell Cash, Conventional, or Owner Finance

7. 2026-01-23
   soldstatus Closed
8. 2026-01-07
   status Pending
9. 2025-12-22
   listed $35,000 Active
10. 2014-04-04
    soldstatus
11. 2013-05-24
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $310 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $435 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$124/yr (+$10/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,509
• − Property taxes: −$310
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,001
• − Management: −$1,001
• − Depreciation: −$1,303
• Taxable income: $6,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,480
• After-tax cash flow: $5,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Licking R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2918600
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,880
• Composite: 30.41/100
• National rank: #6248
• State rank: #203 of 324 in MO

Livability — Licking

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #12566

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Licking, MO
• Population (ZIP): 6,921

Population outlook (Texas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,648 people
• By 2030: 23,981 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 22,840 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 21,832 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,481 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 16,634 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Texas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.7) · D 13.8% · R 85.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.1pp · 2024: -71.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.7 2020: R+68.6 2016: R+65.4 2012: R+44.1 2008: R+35.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.19%
• Current HPI: 228.0581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+28.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $44,800 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $44,800 SOMO
• 2026-03-18 Listed $49,800 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $49,800 SOMO
• 2026-01-23 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2026-01-07 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-12-22 Listed $35,000 SOMO
• 2014-04-04 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-24 Listed $34,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $310 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.