The Blue Jay II Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$244,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 290 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• BACKYARD OUTDOOR LIVING

🏗️ New construction. The $244,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $295,896.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1924 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,896
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -17.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40530 Tyto Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+1%)	3mo	$274,900	$188	83
40659 Balsam Run Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-1%)	1mo	$239,000	$167	82
40511 Tyto Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+3%)	2mo	$235,000	$158	82
40731 Barley Straw	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+2%)	4mo	$264,990	$180	74
40614 Balsam Run Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-8%)	0mo	$244,990	$184	71
40762 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-8%)	3mo	$239,990	$181	68
15122 Rose Willow Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+9%)	4mo	$279,990	$178	67
15423 Park Perch Pl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+1%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	67
40723 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+14%)	0mo	$249,990	$151	56
40599 Slough Way	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,566 (+8%)	3mo	$294,990	$188	50
15419 Park Perch Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+11%)	1mo	$299,900	$186	50
40418 Winding Way Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+11%)	7mo	$350,000	$218	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $142,321
• Equity at exit: $266,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $418,064
• Equity at exit: $574,862

Cash invested: $82,851 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $263,490 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 117 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1924
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,438/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,588

Max offer price $266,966

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-98	+0% $-200	+5% $-302	+10% $-404
Rent	-10% $-384	-5% $-292	+0% $-200	+5% $-108	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-125	base $-200	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,974
• Closing costs: $8,877
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,781	$2.52	0d	40	0.05mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	93d	1	0.16mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	73d	1	0.18mi
40427 Basalt Elm Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,975	$1.25	21d	1	0.89mi
40718 Barley Straw Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	3d	1	1.06mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	93d	1	1.14mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	73d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $244,990 Active 288 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $244,990 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $244,990 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $244,990 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $244,990 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $244,990 Active 280 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $244,990 Active 279 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $244,990 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $244,990 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $244,990 Active 268 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $244,990 Active 267 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    days on market $244,990 Active 266 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $244,990 Active 265 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 264 DOM
19. 2026-07-11
    days on market $244,990 Active 262 DOM
20. 2026-07-10
    days on market $244,990 Active 261 DOM
21. 2026-07-09
    days on market $244,990 Active 260 DOM
22. 2026-07-07
    days on market $244,990 Active 258 DOM
23. 2026-07-06
    days on market $244,990 Active 257 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $244,990 Active 256 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    days on market $244,990 Active 255 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 254 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 253 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 252 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 251 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $244,990 Active 250 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 249 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $244,990 Active 248 DOM
33. 2026-06-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 247 DOM
34. 2026-06-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 245 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 243 DOM
36. 2026-06-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 242 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $244,990 Active 239 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $244,990 Active 238 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $244,990 Active 237 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $244,990 Active 236 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 234 DOM
42. 2026-06-09
    days on market $244,990 Active 230 DOM
43. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,990 Active 229 DOM
44. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,990 Active 228 DOM
45. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 225 DOM
46. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 224 DOM
47. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 223 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 222 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 221 DOM
50. 2026-05-14
    price $244,990 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,575
• − Property taxes: −$4,438
• − Insurance: −$1,479
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − Depreciation: −$8,608
• Taxable loss: −$7,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $-585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Blue Jay II plan is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a spacious and well-maintained interior with modern finishes and a clean exterior. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding a fireplace in the family room — A fireplace can add value and functionality to the home, especially in a family-oriented layout. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $257,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $252,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Listed $242,990 Zillow