109 Winding Brook Run · Montgomery, PA 19454

$177,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 798 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1979

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location in the lovely Neshaminy Falls 55+ community! This location is super close to the brand new, under construction club house and so convenient for all of the great activities you are going to want to participate in!! Don't forget about the wonderfully relaxing community pool that you will want to use every day, all summer long. There are also so many activities, groups, bus tours to casinos and shows--even some overnight if you're looking to busy yourself! Come out and see this home--comfortable, yet spacious enough with 2 good sized bedrooms and a large eat in kitchen, and a large 3 season porch area for this time of year. Can settle immediately--move in this month and start enjoying the pool!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1979
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed in excellent condition; Not in a federal flood zone
• Financial info: Ground rent exists and is paid monthly
• HOA & community: Senior community (55+)

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home; Located in a 55+ senior community; Ground rent ownership interest
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Redman make (manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Patio(s); Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Combination kitchen and dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Stall shower
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#727 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• North Penn SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #76 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Penn Shs (math 78% / reading 50%, grade B-, #67 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 3,184 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask is 23% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $178k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,133 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.96%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $11,444
• Equity at exit: $26,511

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $71,772
• Equity at exit: $15,373

Cash invested: $49,784 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19454

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$932
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $177,800

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,450
• Closing costs: $5,334
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Stump Rd North Wales, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$2,702	$3.27	1d	17	0.94mi
2408 Adams Ct Unit 2408 North Wales, PA	2.0	2.0	970	$1,900	$1.96	1d	1	1.02mi
1401 Morris Ct North Wales, PA	2.0	2.0	932	$2,100	$2.25	19d	1	1.14mi
1202 Braxton Ct #1202 North Wales, PA	2.0	2.0	932	$1,875	$2.01	43d	1	1.17mi
1003 Thornton Ct North Wales, PA	2.0	2.0	991	$2,000	$2.02	11d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,800 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $177,800 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,800 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,800 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,800 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,800 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,800 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,800 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,800 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,800 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,800 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,800 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,800 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,800 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    historical $189,800
17. 2025-08-25
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Great location in the lovely Neshaminy Falls 55+ community! This location is super close to the brand new, under construction club house and so convenient for all of the great activities you are going to want to participate in!! Don't forget about the wonderfully relaxing community pool that you will want to use every day, all summer long. There are also so many activities, groups, bus tours to casinos and shows--even some overnight if you're looking to busy yourself! Come out and see this home--comfortable, yet spacious enough with 2 good sized bedrooms and a large eat in kitchen, and a large 3 season porch area for this time of year. Can settle immediately--move in this month and start enjoying the pool!

18. 2025-07-18
    status Pending 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Great location in the lovely Neshaminy Falls 55+ community! This location is super close to the brand new, under construction club house and so convenient for all of the great activities you are going to want to participate in!! Don't forget about the wonderfully relaxing community pool that you will want to use every day, all summer long. There are also so many activities, groups, bus tours to casinos and shows--even some overnight if you're looking to busy yourself! Come out and see this home--comfortable, yet spacious enough with 2 good sized bedrooms and a large eat in kitchen, and a large 3 season porch area for this time of year. Can settle immediately--move in this month and start enjoying the pool!

19. 2025-07-02
    price $119,000 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Great location in the lovely Neshaminy Falls 55+ community! This location is super close to the brand new, under construction club house and so convenient for all of the great activities you are going to want to participate in!! Don't forget about the wonderfully relaxing community pool that you will want to use every day, all summer long. There are also so many activities, groups, bus tours to casinos and shows--even some overnight if you're looking to busy yourself! Come out and see this home--comfortable, yet spacious enough with 2 good sized bedrooms and a large eat in kitchen, and a large 3 season porch area for this time of year. Can settle immediately--move in this month and start enjoying the pool!

20. 2025-06-02
    price $129,000 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Great location in the lovely Neshaminy Falls 55+ community! This location is super close to the brand new, under construction club house and so convenient for all of the great activities you are going to want to participate in!! Don't forget about the wonderfully relaxing community pool that you will want to use every day, all summer long. There are also so many activities, groups, bus tours to casinos and shows--even some overnight if you're looking to busy yourself! Come out and see this home--comfortable, yet spacious enough with 2 good sized bedrooms and a large eat in kitchen, and a large 3 season porch area for this time of year. Can settle immediately--move in this month and start enjoying the pool!

21. 2025-05-24
    listed $145,000 Active 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Great location in the lovely Neshaminy Falls 55+ community! This location is super close to the brand new, under construction club house and so convenient for all of the great activities you are going to want to participate in!! Don't forget about the wonderfully relaxing community pool that you will want to use every day, all summer long. There are also so many activities, groups, bus tours to casinos and shows--even some overnight if you're looking to busy yourself! Come out and see this home--comfortable, yet spacious enough with 2 good sized bedrooms and a large eat in kitchen, and a large 3 season porch area for this time of year. Can settle immediately--move in this month and start enjoying the pool!

22. 1998-06-15
    soldstatus $19,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Lovely 2Br Single Modular Home In Conveniently Located Village Of Neshaminy Falls. Fully Furnished W/ All Appliances, Newer Heat Pump & Central A/C, Florida Room, Fee Includes Clubhouse W/ Pool, Trash & Snow Removal. Priced To Sell!

23. 1998-05-31
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Lovely 2Br Single Modular Home In Conveniently Located Village Of Neshaminy Falls. Fully Furnished W/ All Appliances, Newer Heat Pump & Central A/C, Florida Room, Fee Includes Clubhouse W/ Pool, Trash & Snow Removal. Priced To Sell!

24. 1997-11-03
    listed $19,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Lovely 2Br Single Modular Home In Conveniently Located Village Of Neshaminy Falls. Fully Furnished W/ All Appliances, Newer Heat Pump & Central A/C, Florida Room, Fee Includes Clubhouse W/ Pool, Trash & Snow Removal. Priced To Sell!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,067/yr (+$89/mo · 157.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,960
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$889
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$5,172
• Taxable income: $4,253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,021
• After-tax cash flow: $5,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Penn SD
• NCES district ID: 4217280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $76,866
• Composite: 51.5/100
• National rank: #1722
• State rank: #76 of 539 in PA

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #727
• US rank: #7279

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 712,331 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 27,755
• Household income: $118,177
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 459.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 856,074 people
• By 2030: 870,887 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 891,195 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 896,417 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 903,212 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 843,240 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 18% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · South Korea, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Korean 5% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.8) · D 60.9% · R 38.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: 20.8pp · 2024: 22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.8 2020: D+26.3 2016: D+21.1 2012: D+14.3 2008: D+20.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -220.54%
• Current HPI: 270.3006
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.62%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+898.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Coming Soon $189,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-25 Sold (MLS) $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $119,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $129,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-24 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-06-15 Sold (MLS) $19,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-05-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-11-03 Listed $19,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $676 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.