716 Quail Run Ct · Seven Points, TX 75143

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2021 0.28 ac lot Est $125k · 13% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great Opportunity to own this charming new home!! This home has a spacious floor plan that includes a large kitchen with farm sink, lots of cabinets and countertop space, if you like to spend the weekend near the lake, come see this beautiful home. This property will not last long, schedule a viewing! Potential future lake access with dredging.

Key facts

• Cedar creek lake
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• CEDAR CREEK LAKE
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA Loan; Exclusive right to sell listing agreement
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Preowned (built in 2021); Not attached
• Construction: Built in 2021
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.275 acre); Asphalt on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on level 1)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Other interior features; 7 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area; One level
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $910 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 3.1% in Seven Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,063 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kemp ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #605 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kemp Pri (503 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 54% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,365 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.55%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,248
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
900 Quail Run	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$125,000	$103	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $40,695
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $111,704
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,576/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $910

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1340 E Cedar Creek Pkwy Kemp, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,850	$2.14	44d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $109,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $119,000 Active
16. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus
17. 2022-08-19
    soldstatus 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    A great Opportunity to own this charming new home!! This home has a spacious floor plan that includes a large kitchen with farm sink, lots of cabinets and countertop space, if you like to spend the weekend near the lake, come see this beautiful home. This property will not last long, schedule a viewing! Potential future lake access with dredging.

18. 2022-03-28
    listed $138,500 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    A great Opportunity to own this charming new home!! This home has a spacious floor plan that includes a large kitchen with farm sink, lots of cabinets and countertop space, if you like to spend the weekend near the lake, come see this beautiful home. This property will not last long, schedule a viewing! Potential future lake access with dredging.

19. 2010-07-06
    soldstatus
20. 2000-06-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,576 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,576 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$3,576
• − Insurance: −$5,664
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $10,212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,451
• After-tax cash flow: $8,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kemp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825320
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,788
• Composite: 26.37/100
• National rank: #7233
• State rank: #605 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seven Points

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #18899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2022-03-28 Listed $138,500 HCBOR
• 2010-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,576 · +37.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.