3491 Thyme Dr · Rockford, IL 61114

$225,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,529 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1981 0.29 ac lot Est $324k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are willing to put in a little work, this is the property for you! Very desirable location and lots of space in this 3bedroom, 3 bath ranch. The entryway features a skylight which lets in the natural light. The traditional floor plan includes aformal living room, dining room and spacious eat in kitchen which flows into the main floor family room with gas fireplaceand access to a large deck. The primary bedroom has an ensuite and there are 2 additional bedrooms and 2nd full bath.The lower level has a rec room, bonus room, laundry room, 3rd full bath and a seprarte storage area. This home also has an attached 2+ stall garage and a private backyard with firepit area. The home does need some TLC and is priced accordingly, below fair market value. Property being sold in "as is" condition. Inspections are ok but not repairs or credits will be given by seller. Bring your creativity and make this home your own!

Key facts

• Large deck
• Gas fireplace
• Dining room

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS EAT IN KITCHEN
• MAIN FLOOR FAMILY ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential home
• Construction: Below-grade finished area present
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Wood siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (one); Full basement with sump pump; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spring Creek Elem School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 501 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Middle School (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #540 of 665 statewide, top 82%, 961 students, 0% FRL); Guilford High School (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #345 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 2,071 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.40%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5087 Wilderness Trl	0.15mi	3/2.5	2,472 (-2%)	6mo	$239,900	$97	83
5288 Pepper Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,343 (-7%)	0mo	$299,000	$128	63
3757 Dynasty Ln	0.30mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,735 (+8%)	10mo	$395,000	$144	57
5169 Solitude Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,826 (+12%)	8mo	$320,000	$113	56
3087 Cheroakwood Ln	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,282 (-10%)	2mo	$291,000	$128	54
3759 Sherbrooke Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,440 (-4%)	10mo	$337,000	$138	50
3739 Applewood Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,420 (-4%)	9mo	$325,000	$134	49
3852 Foxborough Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,356 (-7%)	10mo	$315,000	$134	49
5427 Chapel Hill Ct	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,250 (-11%)	8mo	$299,900	$133	49
4604 Pepper Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,843 (+12%)	10mo	$242,500	$85	48
5629 Weymouth Dr	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,795 (+10%)	9mo	$270,000	$97	41
4068 Caraway Ct	0.67mi	3/3.0	2,192 (-13%)	7mo	$225,000	$103	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,498
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $22,706
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61114

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$550 /mo · $6,596/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,308

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $452	+0% $389	+5% $325	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $167	-5% $278	+0% $389	+5% $499	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $502	-0.5pp $446	base $389	+0.5pp $330	+1.0pp $271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3121 Carefree Dr Rockford, IL	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,800	$0.93	44d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,596 · $550/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,596 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$6,596
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$325
• After-tax cash flow: $4,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• City population: 147,297
• Population (ZIP): 15,026

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.00%
• Current HPI: 225.8485
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+27.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $225,000 NWIAR
• 2026-06-16 Listed $225,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $206,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 2000-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $176,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $176,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,596 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.