1215 Poplar Grove St · Baltimore, MD 21216

$51,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Townhouse public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1940 1,550 sqft lot ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 bedrooms and 2 full baths.

Key facts

• Built 1940
• Listed 152 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.5% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,976/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $359 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,672 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.08%
• DSCR: 5.32
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3018 Presstman St	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	1mo	$108,000	$77	71
2920 Brighton St	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$247,500	$172	68
2822 Harlem Ave	0.44mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,483 (-2%)	1mo	$220,000	$148	62
1625 N Rosedale St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,396 (-8%)	2mo	$36,000	$26	62
2514 W Lafayette Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+3%)	2mo	$232,000	$149	62
2400 W Lafayette Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,584 (+5%)	2mo	$263,000	$166	60
2404 W Lafayette Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-2%)	2mo	$135,000	$91	59
1601 Ruxton Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,568 (+4%)	1mo	$90,000	$57	58
3004 Brighton St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (-15%)	1mo	$44,000	$34	57
3118 Normount Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (+14%)	1mo	$174,990	$101	55
1528 N Ellamont St	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,328 (-12%)	1mo	$209,000	$157	50
743 Linnard St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,693 (+12%)	1mo	$199,000	$118	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $72,867
• Equity at exit: $7,738

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.93×
• Total profit: $187,843
• Equity at exit: $4,487

Cash invested: $14,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$272
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,098/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $1,176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $488

Max offer price $51,900

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,975
• Closing costs: $1,557
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2806 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,900	$1.35	4d	1	0.12mi
1402 Poplar Grove St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1540	$800	$0.52	44d	1	0.12mi
2728 Winchester St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,800	$1.43	4d	1	0.13mi
2744 W Mosher St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	24d	1	0.20mi
2800 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,799	$1.23	24d	1	0.20mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	15d	1	0.33mi
3238 Westmont Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	44d	1	0.33mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	24d	1	0.35mi
3015 Rayner Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	44d	1	0.41mi
715 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.0	1542	$2,550	$1.65	44d	1	0.43mi
3309 Brighton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,700	$1.50	44d	1	0.44mi
1633 N Hilton St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	18d	1	0.49mi
2922 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,900	$1.17	44d	1	0.51mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	4d	1	0.58mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	24d	1	0.59mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	0.60mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	44d	1	0.63mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	24d	1	0.63mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	24d	1	0.63mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	24d	1	0.64mi
918 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,750	$1.18	44d	1	0.64mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	24d	1	0.64mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	44d	1	0.66mi
2303 Calverton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1314	$2,250	$1.71	24d	1	0.67mi
2405 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	4d	1	0.69mi
2401 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.0	2037	$1,800	$0.88	4d	1	0.69mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	24d	1	0.72mi
3030 Windsor Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	2124	$1,995	$0.94	4d	1	0.75mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	11d	1	0.75mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.75mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	24d	1	0.81mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	44d	1	0.82mi
3700 Woodridge Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1955	$1,950	$1.00	44d	1	0.82mi
1501 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	44d	1	0.87mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	24d	1	0.88mi
405 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	4d	1	0.88mi
3619 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1962	$2,800	$1.43	44d	1	0.89mi
1914 Mosher St Unit 1914 Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	0.92mi
2204 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	4d	1	0.92mi
202 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,250	$1.32	24d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   price $51,900
3. 2025-11-20
   price $59,900
4. 2025-11-12
   listed $64,900 Active
5. 2023-05-15
   historical
6. 2023-03-04
   status Active
7. 2023-02-21
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2022-11-17
   price $80,000
9. 2022-10-12
   listed $90,000 Active
10. 2022-09-13
    historical
11. 2022-06-13
    price $94,499
12. 2022-05-27
    listed $99,000 Active
13. 2009-09-09
    soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,098 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,907
• − Property taxes: −$1,098
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − Depreciation: −$1,510
• Taxable income: $14,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,394
• After-tax cash flow: $10,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-51.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $51,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-04 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-21 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-17 Price Changed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-12 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-13 Price Changed $94,499 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-05-27 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,098 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.