879 Lost Creek Cir · Redan, GA 30088

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1977 0.45 ac lot $110/sqft · 26% below area Est $271k · 26% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a wooded lot, this inviting home offers a blend of comfort and functionality with a spacious driveway and rear deck overlooking mature trees. Inside, hardwood floors extend through the main living areas, highlighted by a fireplace flanked with built-in shelving and abundant natural light. The kitchen features white cabinetry, granite countertops, black appliances, and a sliding glass door leading to the deck. Multiple bedrooms include ceiling fans, generous closet space, and neutral finishes, while bathrooms offer granite-topped vanities. A finished lower level provides additional living space with flexible room options, making this home well-suited for a variety of needs.

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Spacious driveway
• Rear deck

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• SPACIOUS DRIVEWAY
• REAR DECK
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN SHELVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($320/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.3% in Redan — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#274 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,438
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -26.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5175 Walker Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,844 (+2%)	1mo	$215,000	$117	86
5215 Mainstreet Park Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,060 (+14%)	1mo	$265,000	$129	66
884 Forest Path	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-10%)	1mo	$225,000	$138	64
708 Greenhedge Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-7%)	2mo	$150,000	$89	63
1018 Martin Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,986 (+10%)	3mo	$260,000	$131	63
960 Stone Mountain Lithonia Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,795 (-1%)	2mo	$134,000	$75	59
922 Fox Valley Ct	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (-7%)	2mo	$290,000	$173	56
5025 Martins Crossing Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,690 (-7%)	1mo	$268,000	$159	55
5202 Selene Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,872 (+3%)	2mo	$295,900	$158	54
961 Redan Trce	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,080 (+15%)	2mo	$247,000	$119	54
5450 Fox Haven Trl	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,990 (+10%)	2mo	$249,000	$125	50
629 Waterview Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,542 (-15%)	2mo	$229,000	$149	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,167
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,859
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30088

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,476/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $83	+0% $27	+5% $-30	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-50	+0% $27	+5% $104	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $77	base $27	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
855 Lost Creek Cir Stone Mountain, GA	4.0	2.5	2619	$1,946	$0.74	44d	1	0.09mi
982 Chapman Cir Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,000	$1.36	2d	1	0.26mi
1076 Martin Rd Stone Mountain, GA	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,011	$1.14	18d	1	0.44mi
5482 Martins Crossing Rd Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,575	$1.06	13d	1	0.45mi
905 Hemingway Rd Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,625	$1.16	13d	1	0.55mi
5035 Martins Crossing Rd Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,550	$1.20	0d	1	0.55mi
782 Fox Valley Dr Stone Mountain, GA	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,000	$1.02	25d	1	0.59mi
5486 Fox Valley Ln Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,850	$1.20	20d	1	0.69mi
1078 Forest Path Stone Mountain, GA	4.0	2.5	1554	$1,845	$1.19	44d	1	0.70mi
811 King Rd Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	3.0	1840	$3,300	$1.79	44d	1	0.71mi
1168 Perry Way Stone Mountain, GA	4.0	3.0	2100	$1,200	$0.57	3d	1	0.72mi
869 Heritage Oaks Dr Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,199	$0.86	0d	1	0.77mi
4899 Hairston Pl Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,981	$1.35	13d	1	0.78mi
5386 Kristian Ct Stone Mountain, GA	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,901	$1.24	25d	1	0.80mi
924 Lake Drive Ter Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,670	$1.21	44d	1	0.80mi
1228 Mill Lake Cir Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,645	$1.22	44d	1	0.87mi
1183 Mill Lake Cir Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,751	$1.28	6d	1	0.91mi
867 Oakhill Ct Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.5	1556	$1,850	$1.19	44d	1	0.92mi
1401 Mill Lake Cir Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,675	$1.27	13d	1	0.92mi
1373 Mill Lake Cir Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,738	$1.34	0d	1	0.94mi
1338 Mill Lake Cir Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,900	$1.03	3d	1	0.97mi
4980 Fairforest Dr Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	2181	$2,075	$0.95	13d	1	1.00mi
841 Arbor Ct Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,845	$1.27	23d	1	1.01mi
4935 Millstone Walk Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.5	1248	$1,950	$1.56	6d	1	1.02mi
5165 Fairforest Dr Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	44d	1	1.03mi
5308 Omalley Ln Stone Mountain, GA	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,949	$1.00	44d	1	1.04mi
1467 Muirfield Dr Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,870	$1.15	23d	1	1.10mi
5118 Rocky Gln Stone Mountain, GA	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,100	$1.09	44d	1	1.15mi
5713 Wells Cir Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,706	$1.31	6d	1	1.31mi
5621 Stonington Trace Pkwy Stone Mountain, GA	2.0	3.5	1292	$1,581	$1.22	16d	1	1.33mi
1401 Panola Rd Stone Mountain, GA	4.0	4.5	2000	$2,975	$1.49	44d	1	1.35mi
5734 Lanny Ln Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,800	$1.13	25d	1	1.37mi
469 Sherwood Grn Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1792	$1,810	$1.01	12d	1	1.48mi
5799 Redan Rd Stone Mountain, GA	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,490	$0.96	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-09
   price $199,900 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Nestled on a wooded lot, this inviting home offers a blend of comfort and functionality with a spacious driveway and rear deck overlooking mature trees. Inside, hardwood floors extend through the main living areas, highlighted by a fireplace flanked with built-in shelving and abundant natural light. The kitchen features white cabinetry, granite countertops, black appliances, and a sliding glass door leading to the deck. Multiple bedrooms include ceiling fans, generous closet space, and neutral finishes, while bathrooms offer granite-topped vanities. A finished lower level provides additional living space with flexible room options, making this home well-suited for a variety of needs.

2. 2026-05-06
   status Back On Market 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Nestled on a wooded lot, this inviting home offers a blend of comfort and functionality with a spacious driveway and rear deck overlooking mature trees. Inside, hardwood floors extend through the main living areas, highlighted by a fireplace flanked with built-in shelving and abundant natural light. The kitchen features white cabinetry, granite countertops, black appliances, and a sliding glass door leading to the deck. Multiple bedrooms include ceiling fans, generous closet space, and neutral finishes, while bathrooms offer granite-topped vanities. A finished lower level provides additional living space with flexible room options, making this home well-suited for a variety of needs.

3. 2026-04-14
   status Under Contract 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Nestled on a wooded lot, this inviting home offers a blend of comfort and functionality with a spacious driveway and rear deck overlooking mature trees. Inside, hardwood floors extend through the main living areas, highlighted by a fireplace flanked with built-in shelving and abundant natural light. The kitchen features white cabinetry, granite countertops, black appliances, and a sliding glass door leading to the deck. Multiple bedrooms include ceiling fans, generous closet space, and neutral finishes, while bathrooms offer granite-topped vanities. A finished lower level provides additional living space with flexible room options, making this home well-suited for a variety of needs.

4. 2026-04-09
   status Back On Market 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Nestled on a wooded lot, this inviting home offers a blend of comfort and functionality with a spacious driveway and rear deck overlooking mature trees. Inside, hardwood floors extend through the main living areas, highlighted by a fireplace flanked with built-in shelving and abundant natural light. The kitchen features white cabinetry, granite countertops, black appliances, and a sliding glass door leading to the deck. Multiple bedrooms include ceiling fans, generous closet space, and neutral finishes, while bathrooms offer granite-topped vanities. A finished lower level provides additional living space with flexible room options, making this home well-suited for a variety of needs.

5. 2026-03-18
   historical Active Under Contract 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Nestled on a wooded lot, this inviting home offers a blend of comfort and functionality with a spacious driveway and rear deck overlooking mature trees. Inside, hardwood floors extend through the main living areas, highlighted by a fireplace flanked with built-in shelving and abundant natural light. The kitchen features white cabinetry, granite countertops, black appliances, and a sliding glass door leading to the deck. Multiple bedrooms include ceiling fans, generous closet space, and neutral finishes, while bathrooms offer granite-topped vanities. A finished lower level provides additional living space with flexible room options, making this home well-suited for a variety of needs.

6. 2026-02-26
   listed $214,900 New 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Nestled on a wooded lot, this inviting home offers a blend of comfort and functionality with a spacious driveway and rear deck overlooking mature trees. Inside, hardwood floors extend through the main living areas, highlighted by a fireplace flanked with built-in shelving and abundant natural light. The kitchen features white cabinetry, granite countertops, black appliances, and a sliding glass door leading to the deck. Multiple bedrooms include ceiling fans, generous closet space, and neutral finishes, while bathrooms offer granite-topped vanities. A finished lower level provides additional living space with flexible room options, making this home well-suited for a variety of needs.

7. 2017-06-01
   soldstatus $11,569,148
8. 2000-03-10
   soldstatus $122,700
9. 1995-05-22
   soldstatus $89,900
10. 1986-12-03
    soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,476 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,476 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,476
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $1,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Redan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #274
• US rank: #14766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dekalb County · 782,738 people
• City population: 29,279
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 29,240
• Household income: $70,325
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1106.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.92%
• Current HPI: 206.5421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+140.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $199,900 GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-03-18 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $214,900 GAMLS
• 2017-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,569,148 Public Records
• 2000-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $122,700 Public Records
• 1995-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 1986-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,476 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.