5307 State Highway 303 NE #128 · Tracyton, WA 98311

$78,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $119k · 34% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Camelot Estates, an all-age park within the Central Kitsap School District! This affordable 3 bedroom, 2 bath home features an open floor plan with updated windows that enhance energy efficiency and a ductless heat pump for year-round comfort. Enjoy the generous lot that offers plenty of outdoor space for gardening or play, plus a storage shed for your tools. Virtually staged, this property is ready for your personal touch to make it truly shine. Its prime location offers easy access to military bases and shopping.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Generous lot
• Updated windows

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• DUCTLESS HEAT PUMP
• GENEROUS LOT
• STORAGE SHED
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.9% vs local median 3.7% in Tracyton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#193 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Central Kitsap School District (urban): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #49 of 291 in WA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 151 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $73,320 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.98%
• DSCR: 4.11
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,720
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5307 State Highway 303 NE #128	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	0mo	$78,000	$70	100
5307 State Hwy 303 NE #180	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-4%)	8mo	$115,000	$106	76
5307 State Hwy 303 NE #126	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (+6%)	6mo	$85,000	$72	74
5307 State Highway 303 NE #132	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+6%)	11mo	$89,800	$76	72
779 NE Reeds Mdw	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	15mo	$385,000	$334	67
5307 State Highway 303 NE #125	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+12%)	19mo	$110,000	$87	58
1348 NE Vena Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+15%)	15mo	$355,200	$276	52
892 NE Riddell Rd	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+11%)	16mo	$275,000	$220	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $62,376
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.18×
• Total profit: $135,068
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98311

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $1,274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,327	-5% $1,301	+0% $1,274	+5% $1,247	+10% $1,220
Rent	-10% $1,092	-5% $1,183	+0% $1,274	+5% $1,364	+10% $1,455
Rate	-1.0pp $1,313	-0.5pp $1,293	base $1,274	+0.5pp $1,253	+1.0pp $1,233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5163 NE Mariah Ln Bremerton, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	821	$1,895	$2.31	14d	2	0.19mi
1303 NE Jasmine Ln Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.5	1152	$2,600	$2.26	44d	1	0.26mi
820 NE Riddell Rd Unit D Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	974	$1,650	$1.69	21d	1	0.33mi
778 NE Mesa Ln Bremerton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,150	$2.45	14d	3	0.50mi
6101 Washington 303 Bremerton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,880	$2.85	14d	70	0.56mi
1970 NE Fuson Rd Bremerton, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	676	$2,297	$3.40	14d	12	0.58mi
1911 NE Riddell Rd Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	858	$1,980	$2.31	14d	10	0.60mi
3850 Constellation Loop Bremerton, WA	2.0	2.5	1363	$2,600	$1.91	21d	1	0.62mi
1231 NE McWilliams Rd Bremerton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,600	$2.71	14d	26	0.62mi
3831 Maple Ave Unit A Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	44d	1	0.82mi
4020 Bledsoe Ave Bremerton, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	744	$1,875	$2.52	14d	4	0.85mi
685 Sylvan Way Bremerton, WA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,100	$2.02	14d	2	1.11mi
3280 Pine Rd Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	810	$1,671	$2.06	14d	5	1.17mi
3232 Pine Rd Bremerton, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0	980	$2,375	$2.42	14d	9	1.24mi
100 NE Miramar Cir Bremerton, WA	3.0	2.5	1446	$2,500	$1.73	21d	1	1.34mi
1381 NE Fairgrounds Rd Bremerton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,315	$2.44	14d	14	1.34mi
1610 E 31st St Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,445	$1.93	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   price $78,000
3. 2026-01-23
   listed $82,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $14,930
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,583
• After-tax cash flow: $11,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5301080
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $64,825
• Composite: 54.87/100
• National rank: #2813
• State rank: #49 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tracyton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #5240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tracyton, WA
• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 28,168
• Household income: $108,757
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 502.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 9% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 4% Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -378.18%
• Current HPI: 356.6272
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.27%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $78,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $82,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid