3201 Hidden Lake Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$164,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1986 4,124 sqft lot Est $140k · 17% over $217/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three cozy porches, an oversized storage room/workshop, an open concept layout, and 1900 sq ft under roof are just a few of the many reasons this 2 bedroom, 2 bath home is a special opportunity. Perfectly set within the all ages, gated, and amenity filled community of Timber Lake Estates, where you own the land, residents here enjoy the convenience of lawn maintenance, water, sewer, and trash service all included in the monthly fee. Inside, the open floor plan offers the ideal amount of separation with an easy flow and connection for entertaining. The light and bright kitchen features stainless steel appliances, breakfast bar seating, ample storage space- and a huge bonus- a butlers pantry!

Key facts

• Screened side porch
• Butlers pantry
• Three cozy porches

Tags

• THREE COZY PORCHES
• OVERSIZED STORAGE ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BUTLERS PANTRY
• SCREENED SIDE PORCH
• COMMUNITY POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished
• Financial info: Total monthly association fees approximately $217; Total annual association fees approximately $2,604; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $217); HOA covers pool, maintenance of grounds, sewer, trash and water; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, playground, basketball court, shuffleboard court; gated community; Association approval required; Pets allowed with restrictions (size/number/breed limits; max weight ~25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; High-speed/BB Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single story; Faces east
• Construction: Metal roof; Other construction materials; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a lot with mature landscaping
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened porch options; Front porch; Side porch; Patio; Sliding doors; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $165k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.44%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	988 (-5%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	82
34313 Countryside Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	16mo	$139,900	$135	80
3145 Hickory Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+10%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	76
34135 Brown Byu	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+4%)	10mo	$160,000	$148	74
3010 Whispering Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+6%)	15mo	$172,000	$156	66
34645 Lily Ln	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+2%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	64
34616 Morning Glory Gln	0.51mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	56
34701 Morning Glory Gln	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+2%)	16mo	$165,000	$156	56
3041 Short Leaf St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (+12%)	11mo	$157,500	$135	53
34537 Morning Glory Gln	0.47mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	19mo	$140,000	$146	49
34704 Morning Glory Gln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	888 (-15%)	6mo	$60,000	$68	39
3825 Julie Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+14%)	17mo	$160,000	$135	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-18,850
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-20,323
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,748/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,641

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $303	-5% $256	+0% $209	+5% $163	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $59	-5% $134	+0% $209	+5% $285	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $251	base $209	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	0.23mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	25d	1	0.70mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	25d	1	0.80mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	5d	1	0.83mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	17d	1	0.84mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	13d	1	0.84mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	25d	1	0.84mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	3d	1	0.89mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	17d	1	0.92mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,956	$1.85	0d	13	0.93mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	25d	1	0.97mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	25d	1	1.01mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	25d	1	1.05mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	22d	1	1.05mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	11d	1	1.05mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	15d	1	1.06mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	25d	1	1.09mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	5d	1	1.16mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	13d	71	1.36mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,208	$2.16	3d	46	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $164,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $164,900 Active
15. 2024-11-18
    soldstatus $90,000
16. 2024-10-12
    historical
17. 2024-07-16
    price $149,900
18. 2024-06-12
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,748
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$0
• After-tax cash flow: $2,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,748 · +271.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.