3056 Shaw St · Burton, MI 48529

$29,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 1945 10,019 sqft lot $23/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 39% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $755 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.6% vs local median 3.8% in Burton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#555 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Atherton Community Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #481 of 540 in MI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (57%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $27,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.19%
• DSCR: 5.81
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,028
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -71.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3128 Ludwig St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,370 (+3%)	3mo	$165,000	$120	78
1005 Macdonald Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,321 (-0%)	0mo	$140,000	$106	76
913 Macdonald Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,349 (+2%)	5mo	$52,700	$39	70
4424 Cheyenne Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,212 (-9%)	1mo	$76,000	$63	67
720 Algonquin Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+5%)	1mo	$165,000	$118	65
617 Mckeighan Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+4%)	1mo	$146,000	$106	63
3208 Ludwig St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,185 (-11%)	5mo	$25,000	$21	62
526 Mckeighan Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,326 (0%)	7mo	$70,000	$53	60
549 Buckingham Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,374 (+4%)	7mo	$42,800	$31	54
810 Macdonald Ave Ave	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,495 (+13%)	6mo	$101,900	$68	49
723 Mckeighan Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (-12%)	4mo	$29,900	$26	46
3129 Christner St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,460 (+10%)	6mo	$160,000	$110	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $43,246
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.90×
• Total profit: $99,634
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48529

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $755

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3908 Cherokee Ave Flint, MI	4.0	2.5	1824	$1,350	$0.74	13d	1	0.32mi
1034 McKeighan Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,250	$1.20	21d	1	0.37mi
4509 Cheyenne Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	13d	1	0.37mi
805 E Hemphill Rd Flint, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,000	$0.83	13d	1	0.55mi
132 Pine Blf Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$953	$0.99	43d	1	0.59mi
3291 Glengary St Burton, MI	2.0	1.0	972	$1,075	$1.11	43d	1	0.69mi
4411 Red Arrow Rd Flint, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	13d	1	0.75mi
4428 Pengelly Rd Flint, MI	4.0	2.0	1275	$900	$0.71	43d	1	0.88mi
3440 Creekside Blvd Burton, MI	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,424	$0.94	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-20
   price $29,900 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

2. 2026-05-19
   price $29,900 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

3. 2026-04-24
   price $49,900 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

4. 2026-04-24
   price $49,900 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

5. 2026-04-15
   price $59,900 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

6. 2026-04-14
   price $59,900 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

7. 2026-04-01
   price $64,900 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

8. 2026-03-31
   price $64,900 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

9. 2026-02-17
   listed $69,900 Active 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

10. 2026-02-17
    listed $69,900 Active 162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (162 chars)

    This handyman special can only be sold cash "as is. " Seller has not occupied this home. Convenient location and financial possibilities after updating.

11. 2010-12-06
    historical
12. 2010-12-06
    historical
13. 2008-07-30
    historical
14. 2008-07-30
    historical
15. 2008-06-06
    listed $19,900
16. 2008-06-06
    listed $19,900
17. 2008-05-25
    historical
18. 2008-02-26
    listed $24,000
19. 2008-02-26
    listed $24,000
20. 2004-03-31
    historical
21. 2003-12-23
    listed $82,000
22. 2003-12-23
    listed $82,000
23. 2002-05-22
    soldstatus $45,500
24. 1997-06-19
    historical
25. 1997-06-09
    soldstatus $45,000
26. 1997-06-09
    soldstatus $45,000
27. 1997-02-13
    listed $48,900
28. 1997-02-13
    listed $48,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $9,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $6,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atherton Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603540
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,416
• Composite: 15.21/100
• National rank: #9341
• State rank: #481 of 540 in MI

Livability — Burton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #17380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burton, MI
• City population: 26,014
• Population (ZIP): 8,959

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.30%
• Current HPI: 228.5338
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-38.9% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-17 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-17 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-12-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-12-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-07-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-07-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-06-06 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-06-06 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-05-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-02-26 Listed $24,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-02-26 Listed $24,000 REALCOMP
• 2004-03-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-12-23 Listed $82,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-12-23 Listed $82,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records
• 1997-06-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-06-09 Sold (MLS) $45,000 REALCOMP
• 1997-06-09 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-02-13 Listed $48,900 REALCOMP
• 1997-02-13 Listed $48,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,205 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.