904 Stockton Pass Ln · Princeton, TX 75407

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,643 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2022 6,490 sqft lot $170/sqft · 16% below area Est $333k · 16% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS! ASK THE LISTING AGENT!! Beautiful 2022-built home with 3 bed and 2 full bath, an open-concept layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen. The kitchen includes modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and a large island perfect for cooking and entertaining. Step outside to a generous fenced backyard—ideal for gatherings, outdoor activities, or creating your dream outdoor living space. All bedrooms with laminate floor! Enjoy access to the community amenities as pools, park, and walking trails. Just minutes away from shopping and dining. Easy access to US 380. Transferable foundation warranty. You must see it!

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Spacious living area
• Modern appliances

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,973 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.74%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,182
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -16.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
906 Honey Maple St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+0%)	1mo	$265,000	$160	96
624 Willow View Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,643 (0%)	1mo	$295,000	$180	78
702 Stampede Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (-3%)	2mo	$298,900	$188	73
719 Stampede Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-12%)	2mo	$295,000	$203	66
1222 Bray Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+6%)	0mo	$305,370	$176	64
2531 Midfield Way	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	1mo	$257,190	$161	64
1445 Kinsdale Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-13%)	1mo	$244,990	$172	63
405 Saddle Club Way	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-6%)	0mo	$275,000	$179	61
2518 Midfield Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-8%)	1mo	$252,550	$167	59
2535 Midfield Way	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,725 (+5%)	2mo	$259,990	$151	59
2514 Midfield Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-12%)	2mo	$239,990	$167	51
408 Stampede Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+9%)	2mo	$298,000	$166	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-75,301
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-120,488
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$477 /mo · $5,729/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,667

Max offer price $212,973

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1006 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1842	$1,950	$1.06	44d	1	0.09mi
1008 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,995	$1.09	24d	1	0.10mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	7d	1	0.10mi
1103 Wagon Wheel Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	0.15mi
1403 Forever Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,250	$1.10	3d	1	0.17mi
717 Rawhide Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	0.23mi
1417 Forever Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$2,100	$1.08	17d	1	0.23mi
1412 Chestnut Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	21d	1	0.29mi
720 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2013	$2,250	$1.12	24d	1	0.36mi
611 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	44d	1	0.37mi
604 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,050	$1.29	44d	1	0.41mi
603 Smokey Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,100	$1.29	19d	1	0.41mi
627 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	44d	1	0.45mi
513 Spur Rdg Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	17d	1	0.48mi
2440 Limerick Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,998	$1.12	24d	1	0.48mi
507 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,090	$1.04	13d	1	0.51mi
603 Calm Springs Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2039	$2,250	$1.10	11d	1	0.53mi
408 Stampede Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,925	$1.07	44d	1	0.58mi
420 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,975	$1.06	7d	1	0.59mi
503 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,149	$1.07	7d	1	0.62mi
412 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,000	$0.91	44d	1	0.63mi
1501 Hidden Bluff Xing Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,200	$1.23	13d	1	0.72mi
905 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,850	$1.28	19d	1	0.77mi
1204 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,165	$1.08	44d	1	0.81mi
1208 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,000	$1.09	44d	1	0.81mi
810 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,749	$1.09	7d	1	0.83mi
815 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,999	$1.09	44d	1	0.84mi
922 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,900	$1.03	5d	1	0.85mi
917 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	4d	1	0.88mi
1001 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	24d	1	0.88mi
913 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,050	$1.02	44d	1	0.88mi
905 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,956	$0.98	22d	1	0.88mi
1136 Mimosa Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1987	$2,200	$1.11	44d	1	0.94mi
780 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,069	$1.13	44d	1	0.94mi
1209 Hopes Lake Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1931	$1,975	$1.02	4d	1	0.96mi
1443 Mesquite Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,250	$1.13	44d	1	0.96mi
468 Pebble Brook Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,250	$1.03	13d	1	0.97mi
508 Poplar St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,995	$1.09	17d	1	0.98mi
2203 Heatwave Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2131	$2,080	$0.98	22d	1	0.98mi
1209 Mesquite Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,995	$1.09	13d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-03-09
   status Active 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS! ASK THE LISTING AGENT!! Beautiful 2022-built home with 3 bed and 2 full bath, an open-concept layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen. The kitchen includes modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and a large island perfect for cooking and entertaining. Step outside to a generous fenced backyard—ideal for gatherings, outdoor activities, or creating your dream outdoor living space. All bedrooms with laminate floor! Enjoy access to the community amenities as pools, park, and walking trails. Just minutes away from shopping and dining. Easy access to US 380. Transferable foundation warranty. You must see it!

3. 2025-12-22
   status Pending 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS! ASK THE LISTING AGENT!! Beautiful 2022-built home with 3 bed and 2 full bath, an open-concept layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen. The kitchen includes modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and a large island perfect for cooking and entertaining. Step outside to a generous fenced backyard—ideal for gatherings, outdoor activities, or creating your dream outdoor living space. All bedrooms with laminate floor! Enjoy access to the community amenities as pools, park, and walking trails. Just minutes away from shopping and dining. Easy access to US 380. Transferable foundation warranty. You must see it!

4. 2025-12-11
   historical Active Option Contract 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS! ASK THE LISTING AGENT!! Beautiful 2022-built home with 3 bed and 2 full bath, an open-concept layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen. The kitchen includes modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and a large island perfect for cooking and entertaining. Step outside to a generous fenced backyard—ideal for gatherings, outdoor activities, or creating your dream outdoor living space. All bedrooms with laminate floor! Enjoy access to the community amenities as pools, park, and walking trails. Just minutes away from shopping and dining. Easy access to US 380. Transferable foundation warranty. You must see it!

5. 2025-12-05
   status Active 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS! ASK THE LISTING AGENT!! Beautiful 2022-built home with 3 bed and 2 full bath, an open-concept layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen. The kitchen includes modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and a large island perfect for cooking and entertaining. Step outside to a generous fenced backyard—ideal for gatherings, outdoor activities, or creating your dream outdoor living space. All bedrooms with laminate floor! Enjoy access to the community amenities as pools, park, and walking trails. Just minutes away from shopping and dining. Easy access to US 380. Transferable foundation warranty. You must see it!

6. 2025-12-05
   historical Active Option Contract 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS! ASK THE LISTING AGENT!! Beautiful 2022-built home with 3 bed and 2 full bath, an open-concept layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen. The kitchen includes modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and a large island perfect for cooking and entertaining. Step outside to a generous fenced backyard—ideal for gatherings, outdoor activities, or creating your dream outdoor living space. All bedrooms with laminate floor! Enjoy access to the community amenities as pools, park, and walking trails. Just minutes away from shopping and dining. Easy access to US 380. Transferable foundation warranty. You must see it!

7. 2025-11-18
   listed $279,000 Active 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS! ASK THE LISTING AGENT!! Beautiful 2022-built home with 3 bed and 2 full bath, an open-concept layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen. The kitchen includes modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and a large island perfect for cooking and entertaining. Step outside to a generous fenced backyard—ideal for gatherings, outdoor activities, or creating your dream outdoor living space. All bedrooms with laminate floor! Enjoy access to the community amenities as pools, park, and walking trails. Just minutes away from shopping and dining. Easy access to US 380. Transferable foundation warranty. You must see it!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,729 · $477/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,729 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$5,729
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$9,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,246
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-12-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $279,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+48.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,729 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.