1515 County Road 826 · Mauriceville, TX 77612

$96,360

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1980 2.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COMPLETELY remodeled home tucked away on 2.5 acres. Enjoy your newly renovated kitchen with updated cabinetry, added dishwasher, and a tile back splash. Other updates are fresh paint inside and out, new bathroom vanities, new interior and exterior doors, new light fixtures, and new electrical. Updated well and also offers a new A/C unit inside and out with a 10 year warranty. You don't want to miss this precious country home! Call for a tour!

Key facts

• Sold as is
• Property auction
• 2.51 acre lot

Tags

• PROPERTY AUCTION
• SOLD AS IS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#575 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buna ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Buna El (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 702 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $666 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 5740% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,687 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.91%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,961
• Equity at exit: $14,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $26,763
• Equity at exit: $8,331

Cash invested: $26,981 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77612

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$505
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,909/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $96,360

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,090
• Closing costs: $2,891
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-01-01
   historical $1,650
2. 2025-12-30
   soldstatus Closed 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   COMPLETELY remodeled home tucked away on 2.5 acres. Enjoy your newly renovated kitchen with updated cabinetry, added dishwasher, and a tile back splash. Other updates are fresh paint inside and out, new bathroom vanities, new interior and exterior doors, new light fixtures, and new electrical. Updated well and also offers a new A/C unit inside and out with a 10 year warranty. You don't want to miss this precious country home! Call for a tour!

3. 2025-12-01
   status Pending 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   COMPLETELY remodeled home tucked away on 2.5 acres. Enjoy your newly renovated kitchen with updated cabinetry, added dishwasher, and a tile back splash. Other updates are fresh paint inside and out, new bathroom vanities, new interior and exterior doors, new light fixtures, and new electrical. Updated well and also offers a new A/C unit inside and out with a 10 year warranty. You don't want to miss this precious country home! Call for a tour!

4. 2025-10-22
   price $225,000 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   COMPLETELY remodeled home tucked away on 2.5 acres. Enjoy your newly renovated kitchen with updated cabinetry, added dishwasher, and a tile back splash. Other updates are fresh paint inside and out, new bathroom vanities, new interior and exterior doors, new light fixtures, and new electrical. Updated well and also offers a new A/C unit inside and out with a 10 year warranty. You don't want to miss this precious country home! Call for a tour!

5. 2025-10-08
   listed $1,650
6. 2025-08-28
   price $238,500 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   COMPLETELY remodeled home tucked away on 2.5 acres. Enjoy your newly renovated kitchen with updated cabinetry, added dishwasher, and a tile back splash. Other updates are fresh paint inside and out, new bathroom vanities, new interior and exterior doors, new light fixtures, and new electrical. Updated well and also offers a new A/C unit inside and out with a 10 year warranty. You don't want to miss this precious country home! Call for a tour!

7. 2025-05-27
   price $245,500 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   COMPLETELY remodeled home tucked away on 2.5 acres. Enjoy your newly renovated kitchen with updated cabinetry, added dishwasher, and a tile back splash. Other updates are fresh paint inside and out, new bathroom vanities, new interior and exterior doors, new light fixtures, and new electrical. Updated well and also offers a new A/C unit inside and out with a 10 year warranty. You don't want to miss this precious country home! Call for a tour!

8. 2025-05-08
   price $253,000 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   COMPLETELY remodeled home tucked away on 2.5 acres. Enjoy your newly renovated kitchen with updated cabinetry, added dishwasher, and a tile back splash. Other updates are fresh paint inside and out, new bathroom vanities, new interior and exterior doors, new light fixtures, and new electrical. Updated well and also offers a new A/C unit inside and out with a 10 year warranty. You don't want to miss this precious country home! Call for a tour!

9. 2025-04-28
   listed $260,000 Active 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   COMPLETELY remodeled home tucked away on 2.5 acres. Enjoy your newly renovated kitchen with updated cabinetry, added dishwasher, and a tile back splash. Other updates are fresh paint inside and out, new bathroom vanities, new interior and exterior doors, new light fixtures, and new electrical. Updated well and also offers a new A/C unit inside and out with a 10 year warranty. You don't want to miss this precious country home! Call for a tour!

10. 2024-08-03
    status Pending
11. 2024-04-29
    listed $96,360 Active
12. 2024-03-31
    historical
13. 2023-06-15
    listed $96,360 Active
14. 2015-08-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,909 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,909 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,398
• − Property taxes: −$2,909
• − Insurance: −$482
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − Depreciation: −$2,803
• Taxable income: $2,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$519
• After-tax cash flow: $2,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,815
• Composite: 35.83/100
• National rank: #4826
• State rank: #342 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mauriceville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #575
• US rank: #10991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,152

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.14%
• Current HPI: 168.7562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,650 BBOR
• 2025-12-30 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2025-12-01 Pending — BBOR
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $225,000 BBOR
• 2025-10-08 Listed for Rent $1,650 BBOR
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $238,500 BBOR
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $245,500 BBOR
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $253,000 BBOR
• 2025-04-28 Listed $260,000 BBOR
• 2024-08-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-04-29 Listed $96,360 NTREIS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-15 Listed $96,360 NTREIS
• 2015-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,909 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.