4223 Waterwood Pass · Sandy Oaks, TX 78112

$123,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2018 0.44 ac lot $134/sqft · 27% above area Est $97k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 2-bath home on approximately 0.5-acre lot with convenient access to I-37 and Loop 1604. Interior features updated flooring throughout and functional layout. Exterior offers ample space for outdoor use, expansion, or storage. Property includes solar panels; buyer to assume remaining balance. Quiet setting with a country feel while still within close proximity to major roadways, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Quiet setting
• Updated flooring
• Functional layout

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• AMPLE SPACE
• SOLAR PANELS
• QUIET SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; For sale
• HOA & community: Located in WATERWOOD subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: Water system; Septic
• Home design: Pre-owned property; Approximate age: 8 years
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Siding exterior; Lot located in WATERWOOD subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level (15 x 11); Bedroom 2 (11 x 8); Bedroom 3 (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with separate tub and shower (8 x 7)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Eat-in kitchen; Utility room inside; Some window coverings remain; 1 living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.2% in Sandy Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,356 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Freedom El (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 562 students, 93% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $650 of equity ($854 loan paydown + $-204 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,795 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.32%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,168
• List price: $123,500
• Delta: 27.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22738 Lazy Strm	0.52mi	3/2.0	896 (-3%)	8mo	$99,500	$111	64
23038 White Hickory	0.72mi	3/2.0	924 (0%)	4mo	$97,000	$105	63
23330 Skila Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+8%)	18mo	$90,000	$90	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $19,891
• Equity at exit: $34,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $63,980
• Equity at exit: $41,081

Cash invested: $34,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$648
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,637/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $123,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,875
• Closing costs: $3,705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,500 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,500 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,500 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $123,500 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,500 Price Change 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,500 Price Change 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,500 Price Change 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,500 Price Change 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $123,500 Price Change 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $125,000 New 411-char remark
16. 2026-04-29
    historical
17. 2026-04-21
    price $124,000
18. 2026-03-31
    price $126,000
19. 2026-03-24
    price $128,000
20. 2026-03-11
    price $130,000
21. 2026-01-18
    listed $135,000 New
22. 2017-08-08
    status Back on Market
23. 2017-08-08
    historical
24. 2017-04-25
    status Pending
25. 2017-03-02
    listed $35,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,637 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,260 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$623/yr (+$52/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,918
• − Property taxes: −$1,637
• − Insurance: −$618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,482
• − Management: −$1,482
• − Depreciation: −$3,593
• Taxable income: $2,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$670
• After-tax cash flow: $3,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sandy Oaks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1356
• US rank: #23340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sandy Oaks, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,959

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+252.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $123,500 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Listed $125,000 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $124,000 LERA
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $126,000 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $128,000 LERA
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $130,000 LERA
• 2026-01-18 Listed $135,000 LERA
• 2017-08-08 Relisted — LERA
• 2017-08-08 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2017-04-25 Pending — LERA
• 2017-03-02 Listed $35,000 LERA

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,637 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.