2650 W Union Hills Dr #231 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 2016 $57/sqft · at area comps Est $58k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Own a charming home in the Friendly Village of Orangewood! GREAT CONDITION, GREAT VALUE! This corner lot mobile home displays a 2 space carport, a low-maintenance landscape, and an accessible ramp leading to the porch & entrance. The interior features a spacious open floor with warm, neutral paint and tile flooring, promoting a greater traffic flow. The kitchen offers abundant storage with knotty wood cabinets, ample counters, and stainless steel appliances. The main bedroom hosts a walk-in closet and a full bathroom. Plush carpet is found in both bedrooms for added comfort. Out the back, a large concrete slab can be used as a patio for outdoor dining or as additional parking.

Key facts

• Knotty wood cabinets
• 2 space carport
• Abundant storage

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• 2 SPACE CARPORT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPE
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• KNOTTY WOOD CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From I-17 N take the exit toward N Black Cyn Hwy, turn left onto W Union Hills Dr, then right onto N Village Pkwy to access Orangewood Village community.
• HOA & community: Land lease: $982 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Gated community; Community media room; On-site coin-operated laundry; Near bus stop; Golf access

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces; 3 carport spaces; 1 open parking space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Gravel/stone front; Gravel/stone back; No fencing listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; No interior steps; Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Accessible approach with ramp; Lever door handles
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $757 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.02%
• DSCR: 3.63
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,540
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -4.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #366	0.01mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	16mo	$73,900	$77	86
2650 W Union Hills Dr #29	0.01mi	2/2.0	896 (-7%)	8mo	$42,500	$47	82
2650 W Union Hills Dr #329	0.01mi	2/2.0	896 (-7%)	14mo	$72,000	$80	77
2650 W Union Hills Dr #50	0.05mi	2/2.0	868 (-10%)	7mo	$40,500	$47	76
2650 W Union Hills Dr #230	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	13mo	$26,000	$25	75
2650 W Union Hills Dr #169	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	4mo	$65,000	$62	72
2650 W Union Hills Dr #245	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	10mo	$35,000	$42	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $35,128
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $76,485
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $795	-5% $776	+0% $757	+5% $738	+10% $719
Rent	-10% $644	-5% $701	+0% $757	+5% $814	+10% $871
Rate	-1.0pp $785	-0.5pp $771	base $757	+0.5pp $743	+1.0pp $729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18410 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,051	$1.75	25d	1	0.29mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,721	$1.73	0d	17	0.43mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	19d	2	0.46mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	3d	19	0.57mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	2d	80	0.59mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	15d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	8d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	15d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	8d	1	0.73mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	44d	1	0.76mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,366	$1.68	0d	63	0.82mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	17d	1	0.83mi
18626 N 34th Ave #2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	570	$1,595	$2.80	44d	1	0.88mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	44d	1	0.91mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	580	$1,121	$1.93	0d	1	0.93mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,440	$1.67	24d	1	0.93mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$1,132	$1.83	22d	1	0.93mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,522	$1.77	44d	1	0.93mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	2d	2	1.06mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,400	$1.58	0d	3	1.06mi
2222 W Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	616	$1,285	$2.09	0d	31	1.08mi
20231 N 21st Ln Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	770	$995	$1.29	25d	1	1.13mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	0d	13	1.16mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,560	$1.62	0d	15	1.20mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	0d	35	1.24mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	44d	1	1.27mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	3d	1	1.28mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	0d	21	1.29mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	25d	1	1.29mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	25d	2	1.36mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	13d	2	1.36mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	25d	1	1.36mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	25d	1	1.37mi
17211 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,500	$1.81	19d	2	1.37mi
2142 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	22d	1	1.40mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit A213 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	758	$1,495	$1.97	44d	1	1.41mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	0d	40	1.41mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,371	$1.71	0d	34	1.49mi
20401 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,637	$1.96	0d	12	1.49mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    historical
16. 2026-04-16
    price $55,000
17. 2026-03-19
    price $59,900
18. 2026-02-12
    listed $64,900 Active
19. 2026-02-04
    historical
20. 2026-01-19
    listed $71,000 Active
21. 2025-11-30
    historical
22. 2025-10-07
    price $72,000
23. 2025-10-07
    status Active
24. 2025-10-03
    historical
25. 2025-10-01
    historical $1,600
26. 2025-09-23
    price $84,500
27. 2025-06-26
    listed $1,600
28. 2025-05-09
    price $84,900
29. 2025-03-31
    price $89,000
30. 2025-01-29
    listed $92,000 Active
31. 2005-04-27
    historical
32. 2004-11-30
    listed $41,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $8,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,096
• After-tax cash flow: $6,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+31.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $59,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $71,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $72,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Rental Removed $1,600 ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $84,500 ARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed for Rent $1,600 ARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $84,900 ARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $89,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $92,000 ARMLS
• 2005-04-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-11-30 Listed $41,900 ARMLS