3716 Chief Dr · Rapid City, SD 57701

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1988 0.25 ac lot Est $262k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Manufactured home on land; Single-story
• Construction: Metal siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Has a view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator, Microwave, Dishwasher, Gas oven, Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dryer, Refrigerator, Washer, Microwave, Dishwasher, Gas oven, Oven; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer, Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($904/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in Rapid City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#34 in SD, #4,720 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Rapid City Area School District 51-4 (urban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 59 in SD (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Canyon Lake Elementary - 04 (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #228 of 253 statewide, top 92%, 346 students, 39% FRL); North Middle School - 35 (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #135 of 143 statewide, top 96%, 513 students, 100% FRL); Central High School - 41 (math 35% / reading 61%, grade D, #106 of 151 statewide, top 71%, 1,768 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 36% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,181 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (715 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,175 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.62%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,080
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
824 Flamingo Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+2%)	8mo	$290,000	$197	77
3414 Bonna Villa Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	22mo	$250,000	$172	70
3420 Champion Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	21mo	$265,000	$182	70
3423 Bonna Villa Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	9mo	$172,000	$110	68
3341 Champion Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-14%)	19mo	$232,000	$188	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,576
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-28,087
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57701

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $573/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $132	+0% $75	+5% $19	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-50	-5% $13	+0% $75	+5% $138	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $126	base $75	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3945 Kyle St Rapid City, SD	2.0	2.0	1314	$1,900	$1.45	22d	1	0.25mi
4210 Kateland St Rapid City, SD	2.0–3.0	2.0	1213	$1,395	$1.15	22d	3	0.28mi
4226 Kateland St Unit 202 Rapid City, SD	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,225	$1.04	22d	1	0.32mi
3220 Champion Dr Rapid City, SD	3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,439	$1.58	22d	16	0.37mi
4660 Coal Bank Dr Unit 104 Rapid City, SD	3.0	2.0	1191	$1,300	$1.09	22d	1	0.59mi
4911 Haines Ave Rapid City, SD	3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,575	$1.76	22d	2	0.73mi
5339 Coal Bank Dr Rapid City, SD	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,185	$1.81	22d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,607 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,034/yr (+$169/mo · 354.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$573
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$614
• After-tax cash flow: $1,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapid City Area School District 51-4
• NCES district ID: 4659820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,145
• Composite: 34.47/100
• National rank: #5189
• State rank: #50 of 59 in SD

Livability — Rapid City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #4720

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rapid City, SD
• County: Pennington County · 99,403 people
• City population: 99,403
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• Population (ZIP): 45,795
• Household income: $56,461
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,504 people
• By 2030: 133,370 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 147,505 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 160,507 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 197,585 · +57.4%
• By 2100: 241,736 · +92.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Native American 11% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.4% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+33.0 2012: R+29.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.12%
• Current HPI: 222.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $199,000 BHMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $573 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.