4665 Victor Path #6 · Hugo, MN 55038

$250,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Townhouse public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2011 7,013 sqft lot $163/sqft · 24% below area Est $369k · 32% under $486/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully maintained 2 bed/3 bath townhouse is ready for you to move in and call it home! Inside features new flooring on the main level, a cozy gas fireplace, clean kitchen with plenty of storage and a large island perfect for serving or gathering, private primary bath and a walk-in closet, and wonderful natural light streaming in through the windows. Step out onto the deck and enjoy the quiet serenity with the view of the wetland. With access to the association maintained in-ground heated pool, miles of nearby walking trails, and conveniently located close to parks, restaurants and shopping, this one is a MUST SEE!!

Key facts

• $486 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,712 above-grade square feet; Main level finished area approximately 704
• HOA & community: HOA: Associa; Monthly association fee of $486; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, snow removal, professional management and shared amenities; Association amenities include in-ground sprinkler system and other shared features

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tuckunder garage; Two-car garage (21 x 19)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Block foundation
• Construction: Shingle roof (age over 8 years); Foundation area 704
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Deck; Light tree coverage; Association-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on upper level)
• Flooring: Tile floors; Natural woodwork (wood flooring in some areas implied)
• Bathrooms: Primary bath is a 3/4 with private primary features; Upper level includes a full bath and a 3/4 bath; Main floor half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Natural woodwork; Paneled doors; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Walk-in closet; Tile floors; In-ground sprinkler; Gas fireplace in living room; Shared heated in-ground pool; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Upper-level laundry (laundry closet)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-319 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoska International (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 554 students, 24% FRL); Central Middle (math 41% / reading 55%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,020 students, 24% FRL); White Bear South Campus Senior (math 37%, 1,111 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $193,715 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,907
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -32.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-60,516
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-77,656
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,866/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$486
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,709

Max offer price $193,715

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-177	-5% $-248	+0% $-319	+5% $-389	+10% $-460
Rent	-10% $-501	-5% $-410	+0% $-319	+5% $-228	+10% $-136
Rate	-1.0pp $-193	-0.5pp $-255	base $-319	+0.5pp $-383	+1.0pp $-449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4631 Rosemary Way Hugo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,330	$2.42	0d	1	0.19mi
14891 Generation Ave N Hugo, MN	2.0	2.0	2100	$2,197	$1.05	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $486 · $5,832/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $250,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 17 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-17
   historical Contingent - Inspection 1463-char remark
5. 2026-05-16
   listed $250,000 Active 1463-char remark
6. 2026-05-12
   historical $250,000 1463-char remark
7. 2025-11-12
   historical
8. 2025-10-23
   listed $275,000 Active
9. 2025-10-16
   historical
10. 2022-07-07
    soldstatus $260,000
11. 2022-06-09
    soldstatus $260,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    This beautifully maintained 2 bed/3 bath townhouse is ready for you to move in and call it home! Inside features new flooring on the main level, a cozy gas fireplace, clean kitchen with plenty of storage and a large island perfect for serving or gathering, private primary bath and a walk-in closet, and wonderful natural light streaming in through the windows. Step out onto the deck and enjoy the quiet serenity with the view of the wetland. With access to the association maintained in-ground heated pool, miles of nearby walking trails, and conveniently located close to parks, restaurants and shopping, this one is a MUST SEE!!

12. 2022-05-16
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    This beautifully maintained 2 bed/3 bath townhouse is ready for you to move in and call it home! Inside features new flooring on the main level, a cozy gas fireplace, clean kitchen with plenty of storage and a large island perfect for serving or gathering, private primary bath and a walk-in closet, and wonderful natural light streaming in through the windows. Step out onto the deck and enjoy the quiet serenity with the view of the wetland. With access to the association maintained in-ground heated pool, miles of nearby walking trails, and conveniently located close to parks, restaurants and shopping, this one is a MUST SEE!!

13. 2022-05-07
    listed $260,000

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    This beautifully maintained 2 bed/3 bath townhouse is ready for you to move in and call it home! Inside features new flooring on the main level, a cozy gas fireplace, clean kitchen with plenty of storage and a large island perfect for serving or gathering, private primary bath and a walk-in closet, and wonderful natural light streaming in through the windows. Step out onto the deck and enjoy the quiet serenity with the view of the wetland. With access to the association maintained in-ground heated pool, miles of nearby walking trails, and conveniently located close to parks, restaurants and shopping, this one is a MUST SEE!!

14. 2022-05-07
    historical

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    This beautifully maintained 2 bed/3 bath townhouse is ready for you to move in and call it home! Inside features new flooring on the main level, a cozy gas fireplace, clean kitchen with plenty of storage and a large island perfect for serving or gathering, private primary bath and a walk-in closet, and wonderful natural light streaming in through the windows. Step out onto the deck and enjoy the quiet serenity with the view of the wetland. With access to the association maintained in-ground heated pool, miles of nearby walking trails, and conveniently located close to parks, restaurants and shopping, this one is a MUST SEE!!

15. 2020-08-19
    soldstatus $217,000
16. 2020-08-13
    soldstatus $217,000 Sold
17. 2020-06-18
    listed Contingent - Inspection
18. 2020-06-16
    listed $215,000
19. 2016-10-26
    soldstatus $151,000
20. 2016-10-07
    soldstatus $151,000 Sold
21. 2016-08-11
    status Pending
22. 2016-08-11
    listed $151,000 Active
23. 2015-07-15
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold
24. 2015-07-15
    soldstatus $145,000
25. 2015-07-10
    status Pending
26. 2015-06-22
    historical Contingent - Inspection
27. 2015-06-16
    price $149,900
28. 2015-06-03
    listed $159,900 Active
29. 2012-04-03
    soldstatus $129,900
30. 2012-03-22
    soldstatus $129,900
31. 2012-02-22
    historical
32. 2012-01-14
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,866 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,866 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,866
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − HOA: −$5,832
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,916
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+92.5% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Listed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-09 Sold (MLS) $260,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-07 Listed $260,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $217,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-13 Sold (MLS) $217,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-18 Listed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-16 Listed $215,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-07 Sold (MLS) $151,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-11 Listed $151,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-15 Sold (MLS) $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-10 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-22 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-16 Price Changed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-03 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2012-03-22 Sold (MLS) $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-14 Listed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,866 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.