14945 Austin Rd · Willis, TX 77378

$146,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2020 5,749 sqft lot $160/sqft · 16% below area Est $175k · 16% under $7/mo HOA ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the Frontier Lakes neighborhood of Willis, TX, 14945 Austin Rd is a traditional-style single-family home. Built in 2020, this modern residence offers approximately 920 square feet of living space, featuring a functional 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom layout.

Key facts

• 5,749 sq ft lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Frontier Lakes POA with an annual fee of $89

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Single-story entry (first level main living areas)
• Construction: Built in 2020; Cement siding; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first level (approx. 12 x 10); Bedroom on the first level (approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom on the first level (approx. 10 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parmley El (math 39% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 625 students, 72% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,541 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.35%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,998
• List price: $146,950
• Delta: -16.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15229 Travis Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	900 (-2%)	8mo	$150,000	$167	81
3940 Frontier Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,034 (+12%)	2mo	$175,000	$169	67
4089 Ben Milam	0.11mi	2/1.5 (-1)	896 (-3%)	21mo	$167,800	$187	66
14881 Travis Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	958 (+4%)	20mo	$173,900	$182	64
15149 Austin Rd	0.23mi	3/2.5	800 (-13%)	3mo	$159,000	$199	63
—	0.72mi	3/2.0	924 (+0%)	13mo	$227,500	$246	55
4572 Ben Milam Rd	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,058 (+15%)	15mo	$181,900	$172	46
14861 Travis Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,058 (+15%)	20mo	$184,900	$175	46
15231 Arrowhead Loop W	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+9%)	14mo	$180,000	$180	45
15384 Arrowhead Loop W	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+4%)	17mo	$160,000	$167	39
14777 Bowie Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,058 (+15%)	19mo	$184,900	$175	39
15269 Arrowhead Loop Dr W	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+14%)	17mo	$204,600	$195	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,898
• Equity at exit: $21,911

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,650
• Equity at exit: $12,706

Cash invested: $41,146 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,525/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $146,950

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $328	+0% $286	+5% $245	+10% $203
Rent	-10% $153	-5% $220	+0% $286	+5% $353	+10% $420
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $324	base $286	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,738
• Closing costs: $4,408
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $146,950 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,950 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,950 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,950 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $146,950 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,950 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,950 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,950 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,950 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,950 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,950 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,950 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,950 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,950 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,950 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    historical
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $149,950 Active 260-char remark
18. 2026-04-28
    price $139,950
19. 2026-04-22
    price $145,950
20. 2026-04-16
    price $148,950
21. 2026-03-31
    listed $149,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,689 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,231
• − Property taxes: −$2,525
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$4,275
• Taxable income: $1,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$286
• After-tax cash flow: $3,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $146,950 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $149,950 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $139,950 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $145,950 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $148,950 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $149,950 HARMLS

Property tax history

+38.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,525 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.