1109 Colts Cir Unit F2 · Lawrence, NJ 08648

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,133 sqft · Condo · 72 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $194/sqft · 27% below area Est $301k · 27% under $666/mo HOA · 28% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Lifestyle and Easy Living-Welcome to 1109 Colts Circle in Carriage Park, a desirable 55 + community in Lawrence Township. This first floor unit is a sun filled 2 bedroom, 2 bath apartment that overlooks a peaceful courtyard with lovely mature trees. Newly installed wood flooring, an open floor plan and clean, neutral decor provide a space that's ready to move-in and immediately feel at home. Community amenities are right around the corner and offer a clubhouse, exercise, outdoor pool and meeting rooms. Also convenient to community outdoor walking trails. Carriage Park is also conveniently located near shops, restaurants and highways heading north or south.

Key facts

• $666 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (18.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lawrence Township Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #217 of 472 in NJ (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ben Franklin Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 335 students, 13% FRL); Lawrence Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #259 of 431 statewide, top 61%, 797 students, 29% FRL); Lawrence High School (math 26% / reading 63%, grade F, #149 of 399 statewide, top 40%, 1,207 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,256 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,717
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -26.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-60,203
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-101,013
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08648

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,411 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$666
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,768

Max offer price $179,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-130	-5% $-206	+0% $-282	+5% $-358	+10% $-434
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-377	+0% $-282	+5% $-186	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-226	base $-282	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1208 Colts Cir Unit F Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1133	$2,300	$2.03	23d	1	0.01mi
2000 Colts Cir #2202 Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	23d	1	0.11mi
161 Franklin Corner Rd Lawrence Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	760	$1,758	$2.31	23d	4	0.63mi
515 Dakota Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	725	$2,195	$3.03	23d	1	0.93mi
900 Grand Central Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1401	$3,342	$2.39	15d	31	0.99mi
1321 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1245	$2,500	$2.01	15d	1	1.00mi
1347 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	15d	1	1.00mi
1447 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	15d	1	1.01mi
1600 White Pine Cir Lawrenceville, NJ	1.0	1.0	920	$1,880	$2.04	23d	3	1.18mi
2140 Princeton Pike Lawrenceville, NJ	2.0	1.0	952	$2,700	$2.84	23d	1	1.43mi
756 Cherry Tree Ln Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1207	$2,200	$1.82	15d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $666 · $7,992/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $220,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $220,000 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    Location, Lifestyle and Easy Living-Welcome to 1109 Colts Circle in Carriage Park, a desirable 55 + community in Lawrence Township. This first floor unit is a sun filled 2 bedroom, 2 bath apartment that overlooks a peaceful courtyard with lovely mature trees. Newly installed wood flooring, an open floor plan and clean, neutral decor provide a space that's ready to move-in and immediately feel at home. Community amenities are right around the corner and offer a clubhouse, exercise, outdoor pool and meeting rooms. Also convenient to community outdoor walking trails. Carriage Park is also conveniently located near shops, restaurants and highways heading north or south.

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $230,000 Active 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    Location, Lifestyle and Easy Living-Welcome to 1109 Colts Circle in Carriage Park, a desirable 55 + community in Lawrence Township. This first floor unit is a sun filled 2 bedroom, 2 bath apartment that overlooks a peaceful courtyard with lovely mature trees. Newly installed wood flooring, an open floor plan and clean, neutral decor provide a space that's ready to move-in and immediately feel at home. Community amenities are right around the corner and offer a clubhouse, exercise, outdoor pool and meeting rooms. Also convenient to community outdoor walking trails. Carriage Park is also conveniently located near shops, restaurants and highways heading north or south.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − HOA: −$7,992
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,635
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated condo is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The property offers a great location with community amenities and easy access to shopping and highways.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a space feel new and inviting
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can add value and appeal to the kitchen
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can enhance the overall look and feel of the bathrooms

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a space feel new and inviting ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can add value and appeal to the kitchen ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can enhance the overall look and feel of the bathrooms ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $89,210
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4661
• State rank: #217 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lawrence

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,323
• Household income: $125,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.66%
• Current HPI: 260.9615
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $230,000 BRIGHT MLS