21 Hillside Ave · New Hartford, NY 13413

$239,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1868 10,058 sqft lot Est $357k · 33% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1868

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.8% in New Hartford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#157 in NY, #2,420 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1868 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $211,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1868 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.18%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $357,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Hillside Ave	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,247 (+2%)	8mo	$310,000	$138	80
60 Paris Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,044 (-7%)	16mo	$295,610	$145	62
74 Hartford	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,057 (-7%)	10mo	$310,000	$151	57
82 Oxford Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,297 (+4%)	10mo	$415,000	$181	55
30 Pearl St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,422 (+10%)	17mo	$279,000	$115	55
32 Root St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,993 (-10%)	13mo	$395,000	$198	54
15 Brookline Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,944 (-12%)	7mo	$185,297	$95	53
12 Woodberry Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,168 (-2%)	11mo	$470,000	$217	47
2817 Brighton Pl	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,962 (-11%)	9mo	$230,000	$117	42
126 Gilbert Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,474 (+12%)	13mo	$400,000	$162	37
213 Gilbert Rd	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,468 (+12%)	2mo	$435,000	$176	36
44 Woodberry Rd	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,510 (+14%)	12mo	$465,000	$185	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,891
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,279
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$375 /mo · $4,502/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,194

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $302	+0% $234	+5% $166	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $136	+0% $234	+5% $332	+10% $431
Rate	-1.0pp $355	-0.5pp $295	base $234	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Paris Rd New Hartford, NY	2.0	1.0	2280	$1,800	$0.79	45d	1	0.16mi
11 Sanger Ave New Hartford, NY	3.0	2.5	1852	$3,750	$2.02	45d	1	0.23mi
225 Thieme Pl Utica, NY	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,150	$1.15	45d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-16
   price $239,900
4. 2025-11-10
   price $264,900
5. 2025-09-17
   price $279,900
6. 2025-07-03
   listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,502 · $375/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,502 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$4,502
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$1,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$245
• After-tax cash flow: $3,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hartford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620370
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,028
• Composite: 61.37/100
• National rank: #769
• State rank: #128 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Hartford

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #2420

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Hartford, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 16,742
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-18.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-26 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $239,900 CNYIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $264,900 CNYIS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $279,900 CNYIS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $295,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,502 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.