8322 Castle Pond Ct · Houston, TX 77095

$325,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1996 8,855 sqft lot $102/sqft · 21% below area Est $409k · 21% under $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic Weekley home on culdesac in a great neighborhood...beautiful pool with a rock slide and a stone-trimmed spa. And a nice veranda on the east side of the home, with ceiling fans and an outdoor kitchen. And wait until you see the kitchen and the master bath...you need to hurry in for this one.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Kitchen island
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• COPPER LAKES COMMUNITY
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• PRIVATE HOME OFFICE
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR
• MEDIA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Copper Lakes HOA with an annual fee of $1,150

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1996; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-849 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (42.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aragon Middle (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,534 students, 47% FRL); Langham Creek H S (math 56% / reading 65%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 2,781 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $325k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,213 (42.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.19%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,813
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -20.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16818 Sandestine Dr	0.11mi	4/3.5	3,293 (+4%)	2mo	$375,000	$114	84
8306 Corey Woods Ct	0.40mi	4/2.5	3,142 (-1%)	0mo	$439,999	$140	79
17007 Calm Lagoon Ct	0.30mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,046 (-4%)	0mo	$515,000	$169	70
17718 Cypress Laurel St	0.69mi	4/2.5	3,147 (-1%)	1mo	$430,000	$137	65
17411 Pinecreek Hollow Ln	0.37mi	4/3.5	2,842 (-11%)	2mo	$449,900	$158	59
8731 Birch Springs Drive Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	3,047 (-4%)	2mo	$425,000	$139	57
17707 Retreat Ridge Ln	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,960 (-7%)	1mo	$469,000	$158	54
16510 Wellers Way	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,895 (-9%)	1mo	$319,900	$111	53
8107 Cranbrook Hollow Ln	0.57mi	4/3.5	3,491 (+10%)	1mo	$618,000	$177	53
17710 Noble Oak Ct	0.64mi	4/3.5	3,623 (+14%)	3mo	$425,000	$117	41
9007 Gable Glen Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5	3,612 (+14%)	3mo	$525,000	$145	38
8311 Brighton Lake Ln	0.73mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,629 (+14%)	3mo	$449,900	$124	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-79,537
• Equity at exit: $79,303

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-118,818
• Equity at exit: $84,001

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77095

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$784 /mo · $9,411/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,443

Max offer price $188,213

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17111 Cradle Cove Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2445	$2,375	$0.97	7d	1	0.10mi
17903 Timber Crossing Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2532	$2,500	$0.99	7d	1	0.90mi
17114 Kirkland Oaks Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2536	$2,600	$1.03	44d	1	1.15mi
7218 Broadelm Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	3158	$2,400	$0.76	44d	1	1.15mi
16303 Hickory Point Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2556	$2,400	$0.94	3d	1	1.37mi
18511 Cypress Steppe Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,400	$1.12	24d	1	1.45mi
7750 Shavano Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2152	$2,065	$0.96	3d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $325,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $342,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $342,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $342,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $342,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $342,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $342,000 Active 986-char remark
16. 2025-12-02
    historical
17. 2025-10-29
    price $460,000
18. 2025-07-30
    listed $475,000 Active
19. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus
20. 2021-12-17
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Fantastic Weekley home on culdesac in a great neighborhood...beautiful pool with a rock slide and a stone-trimmed spa. And a nice veranda on the east side of the home, with ceiling fans and an outdoor kitchen. And wait until you see the kitchen and the master bath...you need to hurry in for this one.

21. 2021-11-20
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Fantastic Weekley home on culdesac in a great neighborhood...beautiful pool with a rock slide and a stone-trimmed spa. And a nice veranda on the east side of the home, with ceiling fans and an outdoor kitchen. And wait until you see the kitchen and the master bath...you need to hurry in for this one.

22. 2021-11-11
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Fantastic Weekley home on culdesac in a great neighborhood...beautiful pool with a rock slide and a stone-trimmed spa. And a nice veranda on the east side of the home, with ceiling fans and an outdoor kitchen. And wait until you see the kitchen and the master bath...you need to hurry in for this one.

23. 2021-10-27
    listed $425,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Fantastic Weekley home on culdesac in a great neighborhood...beautiful pool with a rock slide and a stone-trimmed spa. And a nice veranda on the east side of the home, with ceiling fans and an outdoor kitchen. And wait until you see the kitchen and the master bath...you need to hurry in for this one.

24. 2019-06-28
    soldstatus
25. 2019-06-27
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2019-06-06
    status Pending
27. 2019-05-28
    status Option Pending
28. 2019-05-15
    listed $329,000 Active
29. 1996-12-05
    soldstatus $150,310

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,411 · $784/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,411 · $784/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$9,411
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,274
• − Management: −$2,274
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$15,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,834
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,767
• Household income: $91,594
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 236.0249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+116.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $342,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $460,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $475,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-27 Listed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-06-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-15 Listed $329,000 HARMLS
• 1996-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $150,310 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,411 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.