6622 Dillon Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$318,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2008 0.28 ac lot Est $307k · at est. $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautiful 3-bed, 3-bath ranch home in Magnolia's Woodland Oaks. Freshly painted throughout ('26) & featuring new flooring ('25), the home is move in ready. The open-concept design connects the family room & kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both everyday living & entertaining. The kitchen comes with SS appliances (refrigerator incl) & quartz counters, lots of cabinet space & plenty of space for a portable island. Through French doors you'll find a formal dining room that can easily be used as a study or even a bedroom as there's a full bath adjacent it. Each bedroom is generously sized with large closets, including a comfortable primary

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quartz counters
• Formal dining room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• SS APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Woodland Oaks Property Owners...); Association amenities include picnic area, park, pool, tennis courts; Association fee $384 annually; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Attached parking/garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Built in 2008; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Shingle and wood roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Partial fencing; Fence; Tennis court(s); Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Attic fan
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Quartz counters; Ceiling fans; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer and dryer listed among appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-445 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tom R Ellisor El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 492 students, 40% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,715 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.00%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,152
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6622 Dillon Dr	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,896 (0%)	0mo	$318,000	$168	96
6846 Durango Creek Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,910 (+1%)	3mo	$285,000	$149	76
723 Hinsdale	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,841 (-3%)	3mo	$299,000	$162	70
6806 Woodland Oaks	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (+6%)	0mo	$325,000	$162	67
7022 Dillon Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (-2%)	4mo	$300,000	$161	66
6731 Durango Creek Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,945 (+3%)	9mo	$264,900	$136	65
7119 Durango Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,906 (+0%)	6mo	$299,000	$157	60
7127 Hayden Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,869 (-1%)	4mo	$315,000	$169	59
6711 Durango Creek Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-13%)	1mo	$268,000	$162	54
7010 Durango Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	2,072 (+9%)	7mo	$219,900	$106	54
6221 Ranch Lake Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,161 (+14%)	6mo	$650,000	$301	41
7226 Basque Country Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,124 (+12%)	8mo	$295,000	$139	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $138,993
• Equity at exit: $286,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $420,984
• Equity at exit: $617,804

Cash invested: $89,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,658/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,810

Max offer price $239,382

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-265	-5% $-355	+0% $-445	+5% $-535	+10% $-625
Rent	-10% $-623	-5% $-534	+0% $-445	+5% $-356	+10% $-268
Rate	-1.0pp $-285	-0.5pp $-364	base $-445	+0.5pp $-527	+1.0pp $-611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,500
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7210 Alava Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2031	$2,235	$1.10	45d	1	0.58mi
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	0d	22	0.90mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1896	$2,195	$1.16	0d	6	1.29mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,345	$1.24	19d	1	1.29mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,345	$1.24	23d	1	1.29mi
33139 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.31mi
33150 Willow Heights Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.31mi
33146 Willow Heights Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.32mi
33130 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.32mi
33123 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	6d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 954-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $318,000 Active 954-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   historical
4. 2026-04-03
   listed $334,900 Active
5. 2026-03-20
   historical
6. 2026-01-16
   listed $349,900 Active
7. 2007-12-06
   soldstatus
8. 1994-12-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,658 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,819 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,161/yr (+$97/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,813
• − Property taxes: −$4,658
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$11,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,651
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $318,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $334,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2007-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,658 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.