2928 S 4th St · Southern View, IL 62703

$109,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 890 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

7,515 sqft lot Est $104k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Southern View neighborhood with convenient access to shopping, banking, park, school and eateries. This cute and cozy bungalow offers a living room with hardwood floor, cozy kitchen, two bedrooms and a full bath. Other amenities include a full basement with plenty of storage space, covered rear patio and large back yard with a storage shed. Hurry and check this out before it's gone. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

Key facts

• Extra deep lot
• Lots of upgrades
• 7,515 sq ft lot

Tags

• EXTRA DEEP LOT
• LOTS OF UPGRADES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story living areas with additional levels including upper, lower and basement
• Construction: 890 building area; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: Level lot; 167 x 45 lot dimensions; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with vinyl flooring; Includes dishwasher and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in main living areas and bedrooms; Vinyl flooring in the kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Dishwasher; Washer; Dryer; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#78 in IL, #1,278 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $110k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.28%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,130
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2925 4th St	0.03mi	2/1.0	937 (+5%)	4mo	$125,000	$133	87
2913 S 5th St	0.06mi	2/1.0	975 (+10%)	8mo	$127,000	$130	75
2517 S 10th St	0.68mi	2/1.0	864 (-3%)	2mo	$44,000	$51	62
3210 S 3rd St	0.39mi	2/1.0	810 (-9%)	10mo	$85,000	$105	58
2652 Yale Blvd	0.59mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	7mo	$76,000	$90	57
2621 S 4th St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,022 (+15%)	2mo	$130,000	$127	52
3163 Carman Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,020 (+15%)	6mo	$112,500	$110	49
3132 S 4th St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,009 (+13%)	10mo	$129,900	$129	48
3328 S 4th St	0.53mi	1/2.0 (-1)	953 (+7%)	8mo	$99,900	$105	48
300 W Lenox Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	790 (-11%)	2mo	$67,500	$85	47
3321 S Rita Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	800 (-10%)	8mo	$106,000	$133	46
2643 Yale Blvd	0.57mi	2/1.0	780 (-12%)	10mo	$91,000	$117	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,610
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $38,843
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,261/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $921

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $192	+0% $161	+5% $130	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $117	+0% $161	+5% $205	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $189	base $161	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
604 Bryn Mawr Blvd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	45d	1	0.48mi
2328 S 10th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.92mi
2257 S 10th St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	45d	1	0.99mi
2949 Fox Bridge Rd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$960	$1.07	22d	1	1.15mi
12 Douglas Ct Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	22d	1	1.17mi
2715 S MacArthur Blvd Unit 01 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.5	935	$975	$1.04	45d	1	1.18mi
1908 S 4th St Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	22d	1	1.25mi
6 Ridge Ct Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	905	$1,350	$1.49	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $109,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $109,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   remarks 93-char remark
4. 2026-06-03
   listed $109,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,878 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$617/yr (+$51/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,261
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $170
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$41
• After-tax cash flow: $1,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Southern View

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #1278

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southern View, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,922
• Household income: $45,009
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1626.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.69%
• Current HPI: 147.0877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.19%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+120.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $109,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-09 Sold (MLS) $37,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-08 Listed $38,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-21 Sold (MLS) $56,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-01 Listed $59,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-06-12 Sold (MLS) $47,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-05-11 Listed $49,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,261 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.