861 Carolina St · Gary, IN 46402

$19,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1914 6,098 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Lots of potential with this 2-story fixer upper on a quiet block. Central location would make for a great rental house or primary residence. Handyman's special, being sold AS IS. Make an offer!

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1914
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service: Other
• Home design: Two-story home; Built in 1914; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Unfinished basement (foundation details not provided)
• Exterior features: Neighborhood view

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3; Total of 4 rooms (includes living room and bedrooms)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No interior features listed; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $960 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $19k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 66.9% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,384/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $570 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,715 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 66.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 216.51%
• DSCR: 10.63
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
721 Vermont St	0.26mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,550 (-1%)	14mo	$130,000	$84	69
852 Kentucky St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-8%)	8mo	$65,000	$45	66
555 Kentucky St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,728 (+10%)	1mo	$33,000	$19	61
640 Kentucky St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,392 (-12%)	8mo	$75,000	$54	57
864 Ohio St	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,750 (+11%)	0mo	$188,000	$107	56
899 Ohio St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,452 (-8%)	14mo	$149,000	$103	56
530 Connecticut St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,503 (-4%)	14mo	$43,000	$29	56
1308 E 6th Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$80,000	$56	52
748 Tennessee St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,339 (-15%)	12mo	$155,000	$116	46
579 Tennessee St	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,704 (+8%)	16mo	$168,000	$99	44
1632 Georgia St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-11%)	16mo	$85,000	$61	37
1640 Georgia St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	15mo	$149,900	$107	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.92×
• Total profit: $58,078
• Equity at exit: $2,833

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.32×
• Total profit: $129,383
• Equity at exit: $1,643

Cash invested: $5,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46402

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,384 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $309/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $960

Break-even live

Break-even rent $169

Max offer price $19,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $971	-5% $965	+0% $960	+5% $954	+10% $949
Rent	-10% $851	-5% $905	+0% $960	+5% $1,015	+10% $1,069
Rate	-1.0pp $969	-0.5pp $965	base $960	+0.5pp $955	+1.0pp $950

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,750
• Closing costs: $570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1109 Maryland St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1982	$1,000	$0.50	0d	1	0.31mi
1109 Maryland St Unit 1 Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1982	$1,000	$0.50	0d	1	0.31mi
672 Connecticut St Apt 1S Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1247	$875	$0.70	17d	1	0.43mi
1030 E 6th Ave Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,600	$1.14	0d	1	0.44mi
1329 Delaware St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.44mi
501 Madison St Gary, IN	1.0–4.0	1.0	883	$1,362	$1.54	0d	11	0.85mi
2034 Central Dr Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1615	$1,700	$1.05	5d	1	1.18mi
803 Pierce St Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	3d	1	1.24mi
1744 Tyler St Unit 2 Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	46d	1	1.25mi
1572 Polk St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	0d	1	1.25mi
2306 Vermont St Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,300	$1.08	0d	1	1.29mi
2257 Central Dr Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1220	$1,650	$1.35	45d	1	1.30mi
2425 Prospect St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	0d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $19,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 193-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $19,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $309 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $309 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,064
• − Property taxes: −$309
• − Insurance: −$95
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$553
• Taxable income: $11,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,863
• After-tax cash flow: $8,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 5,836
• Household income: $33,529
• Rent vs Own: 56.6% rent · 43.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 336.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 87% Two or more races 5% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.21%
• Current HPI: 250.2464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $19,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-8.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $309 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.