409 Crockett St · Bristol, VA 24201

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1962 9,147 sqft lot $193/sqft · 8% below area Est $141k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming residence offers an exceptional opportunity for anyone seeking a manageable and affordable entry into homeownership. The interior features beautiful hardwood floors that bring warmth and character to the layout, which is thoughtfully designed to maximize space and create a cozy atmosphere while providing the privacy of a single-family home. The property truly shines outdoors with a spacious, open backyard that provides a blank canvas for gardening or relaxation, paired with the rare convenience of two separate driveways for plenty of parking. Ideally located within the city, you'll enjoy close proximity to the excitement of the casino and other local amenities, making this the

Key facts

• Open backyard
• Hardwood floors
• 9,147 sq ft lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN BACKYARD
• TWO SEPARATE DRIVEWAYS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; House
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built as a house (structure type: House)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography; Subdivision: Crockett

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.9% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#140 in VA, #4,544 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol City Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #53 of 131 in VA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stonewall Jackson Elementary (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 254 students, 102% FRL); Virginia Middle (math 56% / reading 71%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 487 students, 101% FRL); Virginia High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 637 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 101% FRL vs 58% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bristol city in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bristol County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $130k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.20%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,567
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -7.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2228 High St	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	698 (+4%)	1mo	$122,000	$175	76
250 Crescent Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	5mo	$110,000	$164	70
1317 Newton St	0.56mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	10mo	$160,500	$223	53
2226 Bay St	0.72mi	2/1.0	750 (+12%)	1mo	$134,000	$179	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,479
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,595
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24201

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $430/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,060

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $135,000 Active 771-char remark
18. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $62,100
19. 2006-09-01
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$636/yr (+$53/mo · 148.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$430
• − Insurance: −$1,447
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $77
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100450
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,978
• Composite: 52.4/100
• National rank: #1579
• State rank: #53 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #4544

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bristol, VA
• City population: 16,039
• Population (ZIP): 16,039

Population outlook (Bristol County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,113 people
• By 2030: 15,510 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 14,121 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 12,847 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 9,870 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,883 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 1% Iranian 0%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bristol

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.40%
• Current HPI: 196.2099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+140.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $129,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $135,000 TVRMLS
• 2018-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $62,100 Public Records
• 2006-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records